AMERICA'S DIRTY SECRET: Washington is Terrified of a Free Iran

As the Iranian regime wobbles under the weight of economic collapse and Israeli military pressure, the conventional wisdom in Jerusalem and among Iranian dissidents is that the United States should seize the moment to push for a complete collapse of the Ayatollahs.

However, a closer examination of American strategic interests, particularly under a transactional Trump administration, suggests the opposite.

Sadly, to all lovers of justice and humanity, the U.S. does not necessarily want a free, democratic Iran. It wants a contained, controlled, and desperate Iran.

Here are the reasons why Washington prefers the "devil they know."

1. The "Business First" Doctrine

The Trump doctrine is built on leverage. A collapsed regime offers no one to negotiate with; a desperate regime does. The U.S. strategy is likely to utilize the current crisis not to destroy the Mullahs, but to squeeze them. When a regime is fighting for its survival, it is more likely to make massive concessions, nuclear, regional, and financial, just to stay afloat. For a deal-maker President, a weakened adversary under his thumb is far more valuable than a power vacuum.

2. The Addiction to Certainty

The United States is risk-averse. The trauma of the "day after" in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan is still fresh in the American psyche. The collapse of the Islamic Republic would likely lead to chaos - perhaps even a civil war fracturing the country along ethnic lines (Kurds, Baluchis, Azeris), and a loose collection of warlords. America loves certainty. Even a hostile actor provides a single address for threats and negotiations. Washington fears that a post-regime Iran could become a black hole of instability that drags the U.S. back into the Middle East, the exact opposite of the "America First" goal.

3. The Perfect Regional "Boogeyman"

Geopolitically, the Islamic Republic serves a vital function for the U.S.: it divides the Middle East into "good guys" and "bad guys." Iran creates a natural equilibrium. Its menacing presence forces the Gulf states and Israel into America’s arms. Without the Iranian threat, the glue holding the Abraham Accords and the Sunni-Israeli alliance together may begin to dissolve. Iran is the agent of chaos that justifies the American security architecture in the region.

4. The Saudi Cash Cow

Following the previous point, the existence of a threatening Iran is the primary driver of the massive U.S. arms industry sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As long as the Ayatollahs are threatening the region, Riyadh will continue to sign checks for billions of dollars in American defense systems. A peaceful, democratic Iran would drastically reduce the need for such weaponry, hurting the U.S. military-industrial complex. Furthermore, keeping Israel on edge regarding Iran ensures Israel remains dependent on U.S. diplomatic cover.

5. The Trump Factor: Ego and Intimidation

On a personal level, Donald Trump is not an ideologue seeking to spread democracy; he is a pragmatist who enjoys the spectacle of submission. He is known to engage with "villains" (like Kim Jong Un) because he believes he can intimidate them into a deal. He prefers a scenario where he can claim he "tamed" the Ayatollahs, rather than a scenario where he has to engage in nation-building. Trump usully uses threats to fold rivals.

6. Energy Dominance

There is also a cynical economic calculation. A free, democratic, and prosperous Iran would eventually return to the global market as a major oil powerhouse, flooding the market and driving down prices. The U.S., now a major energy exporter itself, benefits from an Iran that is sanctioned and paralyzed. Washington prefers an Iran that is economically crippled and under control, rather than a free competitor capable of shaking up the global energy sector.

7. The Isolationist Advisors

Finally, the President’s inner circle, including VP JD Vance, represents the isolationist wing of the party. They view the Middle East as a quagmire. They believe they can manage the region through diplomatic pressure and economic strangulation without understanding the cultural or ideological depth of the enemy.

They assume a rational actor model: that if they squeeze hard enough, Iran will simply behave.

The United States is currently pursuing a policy of containment, not liberation. The goal is an Iran that is too weak to bite, but alive enough to scare the neighbors.

For Israel, this presents a complex challenge: The American interest in a "zombie regime" may directly contradict the Israeli and Saudi interest in removing the existential threat once and for all. Let alone the will of the Iranian people.