Shas risks sixth seat as UTJ opens 18,600-vote lead

A political upheaval is unfolding in the chareidi street as results from the 26th Knesset election come in: with 85.6% of ballots counted, both chareidi parties stand at seven seats each, but United Torah Judaism holds a commanding lead of approximately 18,600 votes over Shas. In Aryeh Deri's party, there is heavy concern about losing a seat when the double envelopes are counted, dropping to just six mandates, the movement's lowest result since 1992.

The regular ballot count shows a fundamental shift in internal chareidi power dynamics, with United Torah Judaism enjoying a clear electoral advantage of 276,498 votes compared to 257,898 for Shas. At Shas headquarters, officials are watching anxiously as the count nears completion and moves to the double envelopes, fearing a drop to only six seats — an unprecedented political blow for a party accustomed to leading the chareidi street.

The data illustrates the depth of the shift: while Shas has in the past managed to preserve much of its strength in chareidi population centers, this time a significant retreat has been recorded. According to an analysis of voting data, sharp declines in support for the party were registered in various cities compared to the peak it reached more than three decades ago.

In Dimona, a drop of 48.5% was recorded; in Netivot, 46.3%; in Ofakim, 45%; in Sderot, 42.1%; and in Ashkelon, 39.9%. In Netanya the decline stands at 39%, in Ashdod at 37.2%, and in Holon at 29.6%. Even in cities with chareidi concentrations, declines were recorded, though at lower rates in some cases: in Tzfat the drop stands at 21.5%, in Jerusalem at 15.34%, and in Tiberias at similar levels.

Emergency gathering of Shas council members and hundreds of yeshiva heads (Photo: Yaakov Cohen)

In the political system, analysts estimate that several factors contributed to Shas's electoral upheaval. Aryeh Deri's handling of the draft law issue and his stance toward draft evaders caused disappointment among some of the party's voters in the periphery and among supporters of enlistment. At the same time, among conservative chareidi communities, a distancing from the movement was recorded following internal power struggles and tensions with rabbinic courts that affected turnout on the ground.

United Torah Judaism, by contrast, succeeded in preserving its strength and even widening the gap. According to a Kikar Hashabat poll conducted among the chareidi public, United Torah Judaism received 48% of chareidi support, compared to 32% for Shas. The data show that approximately 80% of the entire chareidi sector gives its vote to the two veteran chareidi parties, with United Torah Judaism leading by a significant margin.

At the headquarters of both parties, officials emphasize that the results are not final and that all eyes are now on the count of approximately half a million double envelopes, whose tally could shift the narrow balance between the factions and determine the final distribution of seats. The Central Elections Committee clarified that several hundred polling stations are still undergoing meticulous review processes as is customary, and data from them will be added later.

The major drama is expected to arrive at midnight, when the central headquarters will begin counting approximately half a million double envelopes, votes from soldiers, hospitals, institutions and diplomats, which could alter the balance of mandates and the fate of parties hovering near the electoral threshold.