The Warning Israel Misread Before Oct. 7

This coincidence led Sinwar's warning message to fit seamlessly into the intelligence assessment framework. Officials who participated in the discussion noted that the message "fit the new intelligence picture like a glove," and in special situation assessment meetings held at the Shin Bet's request, not a single participant proposed an alternative interpretation.

According to the details revealed, the message was transmitted in September 2023 from Yahya Sinwar to Sufian Abu Zaida, a senior Fatah figure and associate of Mohammed Dahlan. The information was passed within a short time both to Dahlan himself and to the Shin Bet. Abu Zaida has maintained contact for an extended period with senior Hamas figure Ghazi Hamad, a channel that according to past reports was established on Prime Minister Netanyahu's orders after Operation Protective Edge.

In hindsight, it became clear that the true meaning of the message was completely different, and that this was Sinwar's way of deceiving Israel, demanding additional benefits and concealing preparations for the attack he was planning. But in real time, the explanation linked to the Tsurkov affair provided the system with a convenient answer that planted a false sense of security.

Intelligence sources who addressed the affair clarified that the information transmitted through Dahlan's associates was not high quality. A senior Israeli intelligence official said the real purpose was creating a smokescreen: while Sinwar was transmitting messages of arrangement, his deputy was already finalizing the date of the massacre with Iran.

Regarding reports of a warning allegedly conveyed by UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to the Prime Minister, a senior security official said that "if indeed a message later reached the Prime Minister himself from Mohammed bin Zayed, it could have been the penny that would have sent us to other deepening steps." The senior official added that "something was needed to overcome the calming signs we encrypted for ourselves, and perhaps that could have been the sign."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his part firmly denies the existence of such a conversation.

Abu Zaida himself published a video on his Facebook account in which he identifies himself as the intelligence source who transmitted a severe warning from Sinwar to the Israeli security establishment. In the video, he promised to reveal in the coming days full details about the mediation he conducted between Israel and Hamas and the precise message he received from the terror organization's leader in Gaza.

According to him, the contacts were intended to reach a deal aimed at releasing hostages held by Hamas, and in return Israel would release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, lift the siege on Gaza, allow entry of workers, and solve electricity and water problems in the Strip. According to an investigation published in Haaretz, the contacts reached a dead end in early September 2023, and at that stage Sinwar called Abu Zaida and conveyed the explicit warning.

In fact, even today the connection continues between the intelligence establishment and Dahlan's office, despite the failures revealed in assessing the information transmitted through the secret channel. The affair raises difficult questions about the method of intelligence interpretation and the tendency to fit information to an existing picture instead of examining alternative interpretations.