A Foothold in Africa: How Somaliland Could Become Israel’s Secret Weapon Against Iran

The Israeli defense establishment is currently preparing for a new phase of confrontation with the Houthi movement in Yemen, even as international powers attempt to stabilize the region through diplomatic agreements. Military intelligence officials have assessed that the Houthis, driven by Iranian financial and military backing, are successfully rehabilitating their forces and rebuilding their military capabilities despite previous IDF strikes and successful targeted eliminations. Within the Military Intelligence Directorate, known as Aman, new specialized groups have been formed to broaden the intelligence research and expand the bank of potential targets for future operations.

A senior defense official recently addressed the ceasefire agreement signed between the United States and the Houthis, suggesting that it is actually preferable for Israel to remain outside of such international deals. By not being a party to the agreement, the official noted, the IDF maintains its full freedom of action to strike when and where necessary without diplomatic constraints. This is particularly relevant as intelligence suggests the Houthis may attempt to launch fresh attacks against the Israeli home front if the military resumes ground maneuvers against terrorists in the Gaza Strip.

To counter this growing threat, Israel is looking toward strategic geography in the Horn of Africa. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently hinted at developing relations with Somaliland, a move that carries immense security implications. The Mossad, led by Director David Barnea, has reportedly maintained consistent security ties with the nation, focusing on personal high level connections with its leadership. This infrastructure mirrors Israel's successful diplomatic and security cooperation with Chad. A formal or operational presence in Somaliland would provide Israel with a vital base for close range intelligence gathering, early warning systems for missiles and drones, and a platform for launching ground, air, and sea operations.

Military cooperation with Somaliland would allow the IDF and the intelligence community to significantly shorten operational cycles against hostile actors in the region. This includes not only the Houthis but also the maritime trade routes used to transfer energy, industrial equipment, and advanced weaponry to the rebels. Israel has already demonstrated its ability to reach deep into enemy territory, with its longest strike to date occurring at a range of 2,500 kilometers from Israeli borders. By establishing a more permanent intelligence and operational footprint in East Africa, Israel aims to ensure that no Iranian proxy can operate with impunity in the Red Sea corridor.