Israel May Not Wait: The Strategy Behind Attacking Iran Before the US Armada

Brigadier General (Res.) Amir Avivi, Chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (Bitonistim), issued a significant strategic warning on Wednesday, suggesting that Israel might initiate military action against Iran independently and prior to any American intervention. Speaking at the "HaYom" conference, Avivi clarified that despite recent pauses in intensity, the regional war is far from over. He emphasized that the current military build up and the ongoing operations in Lebanon are intrinsically linked to a larger, imminent campaign directed at the heart of the Iranian regime. According to Avivi, the Israeli government and security establishment are increasingly preparing for a scenario where a preemptive Israeli strike is necessary to disrupt Iranian plans and neutralize the threat of a massive, multi front assault coordinated by Tehran’s regional proxies.

The Shift Toward Regime Collapse

A central theme in General Avivi’s assessment is the evolving objective of the war. While the initial focus of the campaign was the containment of terrorist threats on Israel’s borders, the strategic goal has expanded significantly. "The key is the toppling of the Iranian regime, which will collapse all of its proxies," Avivi stated. He noted that this was not the primary objective a few months ago, but the shifting geopolitical landscape and American determination have changed the calculus. Avivi pointed out that international precedents, such as the pressure on Maduro in Venezuela, have reinvigorated the global will to see oppressive regimes fall. For Israel, removing the head of the "axis of evil" in Tehran is now seen as the only way to permanently dismantle the threat posed by groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

Avivi also addressed the public perception of the war, warning against the "illusion" that recent ceasefires or lulls in combat signify an end to the hostilities. "When we had a ceasefire, an understanding was created among the public that the war ended. This is not true," he explained. Instead, he predicted a period of renewed and intensified fighting across all sectors. The General noted that the situation in Lebanon is merely a subset of the broader Iranian problem, stating that "the issue of Lebanon is an issue that connects to what is happening right now in Iran."

Preparing for the Multi Front Storm

The risk of a preemptive Iranian strike against Israel is a major factor in the current military planning. Avivi suggested that Tehran is currently pressuring its proxies to ensure they do not leave the regime to face an attack alone. This has created a high probability of a "major strike in Iran" occurring simultaneously with heavy fire from multiple other fronts. This reality explains why the IDF continues to strike targets in Lebanon even during supposed lulls. Avivi was clear about the consequences for those who choose to intervene, stating that "if Hezbollah opens fire, the IDF will strike them until collapse."

By suggesting that Israel might strike before the United States, Avivi is highlighting the urgency of the Iranian nuclear and proxy threats. The General believes that the Israeli leadership is ready to act if they perceive that Iran is on the verge of a major escalation. As the "armada" of American forces continues to position itself in the region, the possibility of an independent Israeli move remains a critical component of Jerusalem's deterrence strategy. The ultimate goal, according to Avivi, is to ensure that the source of the regional instability is removed once and for all, triggering a domino effect that would leave terrorist organizations across the Middle East without their primary benefactor.