Israel’s Population Growth Falls Below 1% For First Time Since State’s Founding

Israel’s population growth rate has fallen below 1% for the first time since the establishment of the state, marking a historic demographic turning point, according to new research published by the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies.

The study estimates that Israel’s population grew by just 0.9% in 2025, a sharp slowdown compared with the country’s long-standing growth rate of at least 1.5% annually since 1950. Demographers say the decline reflects a convergence of long-term trends: falling fertility, rising mortality, and a sustained increase in emigration.

“This is a clear break from Israel’s past demographic patterns,” said Prof. Alex Weinreb, research director at the Taub Center. “The peak period of natural population increase is behind us, and growth will continue to slow.”

While the absolute number of births has remained relatively stable at around 180,000 per year, fertility rates are declining across all population groups. The drop has been pronounced for years among Muslim, Druze and Christian women, with fertility falling by roughly 30% over the past decade. Researchers now say similar declines are emerging among Jewish women.

Projections suggest fertility among secular and traditional Jewish women will fall to about 1.7 children per woman within the next decade. Among religious Jewish women, fertility is expected to decline from roughly 3.7 to 2.3, while ultra-Orthodox fertility is projected to drop from about 6.5 to 4.3 children per woman. Although birth rates in religious communities remain high, the study notes that a significant share of children raised in those communities later leave them as adults.

At the same time, Israel is seeing a steady rise in the number of deaths as large population cohorts enter their 70s and 80s, a trend expected to accelerate over the next two decades despite rising life expectancy.

Migration is also weighing on growth. In 2025, Israel recorded a net emigration of approximately 37,000 people, with departures outpacing immigration for the second consecutive year. Immigration levels are on track to be the lowest since 2013, excluding the pandemic year. While many of those leaving were not Israeli-born, the number of native-born Israelis emigrating has risen sharply.

Researchers caution that not all emigration is permanent, but say the combined trends point to a new demographic era. Even so, Israel is still projected to remain among the fastest-growing developed countries, with annual growth rates of around 1% to 1.4% through 2040.