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A mixture of hope and pessimism

Phase 2 Negotiations of the Hostage Deal set to start tomorrow – Here's what to know

The talks come at a crucial moment when both sides face intense domestic pressure while trying to secure advantageous terms. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media discussions, reveals a mix of skepticism and hope regarding the potential outcomes of these negotiations.

Released hostage Adina Moshe, Family members of Israelis held hostage in the Gaza Strip and activists protest for the release of all the hostages in Gaza, outside the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem, February 3, 2025

Negotiations for Phase 2 of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal are poised to begin, though the location and exact timing remain fluid as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads to Washington for talks with President Trump, potentially shifting the venue from Qatar to the United States.

Key Components of Phase 2

According to the framework agreement, the second phase would include:

Exchange Ratios and Expectations

Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya has previously indicated a demand for 500 prisoners for each soldier. While the final exchange ratio remains unpublished, it's expected to significantly exceed the terms of the recent female soldiers' release, where Israel freed 30 life-sentence prisoners plus 20 serving lengthy sentences for each hostage.

Timeline and Political Challenges

The agreement stipulated that Phase 2 negotiations should commence no later than the 16th day of the first phase, which is today (February 3, 2025). However, the process faces several challenges:

International Mediation

The involvement of multiple international mediators, including the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, underscores the diplomatic complexity of the negotiations. Each party brings distinct interests and perspectives to the table, contributing to a multifaceted negotiating environment.

Senior officials in Israel have noted that this ceasefire is tenuous and that there are no end of complications which could occur and put a spoke in its wheels.

Abu Ali contributed to this article.

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