Syrian President al-Sharaa Faces Likely Assassination, Sparking Fears of ISIS Resurgence

Amid escalating instability in post-Assad Syria, Israeli security agencies have assessed the assassination of Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Ahmed al-Sharaa or Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, as "highly likely" at the hands of internal opposition elements.

A senior Israeli official has issued a stark warning: "We need to prepare for the possibility that extremist groups like ISIS and others may take control of Syria if al-Sharaa is assassinated."

This alarming development reflects growing concerns that an internal collapse could pave the way for jihadist organizations to expand their influence along Israel's northern border.

Recent reports from Israeli media and security analyses in November and December 2025 highlight a heightened risk, focusing on threats from extremist factions, internal opposition, and potential power vacuums that could empower groups like ISIS.

Multiple Israeli outlets and think tanks report that security agencies view al-Sharaa's assassination by internal opposition or extremist factions as a significant threat. For example: Israeli Channel 14 reported in early December 2025 that security officials assess the assassination by "opposition groups" within Syria as "very likely." This phrasing echoes other citations of the channel, describing it as "highly likely" by opposition factions.

An analysis from the Israeli Alma Research and Education Center, dated November 13, 2025, describes the risk as "high to very high," stemming primarily from extremists in his inner circle, security forces, or ISIS affiliates. The report notes that al-Sharaa's negotiations with Israel and openness to the West are viewed as a "red flag" by radicals, heightening chances of assassination or a coup. The center also references multiple reported attempts in areas like Damascus and Deraa, though Syrian authorities often deny these details

These assessments are built on earlier incidents, including foiled ISIS plots against al-Sharaa in November 2025, and claims from Israeli media like Yedioth Ahronoth that he survived three attempts in the prior seven months, with Turkish assistance in some cases

Israeli concerns point to the fact that al-Sharaa's removal could trigger chaos, enabling jihadist groups to gain ground:A senior Israeli official is quoted in recent coverage as saying, “If al-Sharaa is taken out, extremist groups like ISIS could seize control of Syria”

The Alma analysis warns of "collapse, disintegration, and chaos" following an assassination, with ISIS potentially retaking territories like Hauran province and rebuilding terrorist infrastructures. It points out that many commanders in the new Syrian army have jihadist backgrounds, which could unify extremists amid instability. This could lead to a "cruel bloodbath" against minorities and direct threats to Israel's northern border

Additional context comes from U.S. assessments in June 2025, noting that al-Sharaa at risk of assassination and the potential for ISIS revival in a power vacuum

Broader reports describe Syria's "stability of instability," exacerbated by economic woes and militia tensions.

Threats to Israel's Northern Border

The potential for jihadist expansion along Israel's border is substantiated in the reports:

Alma's report stresses that an internal Syrian collapse could transform southern Syria into a "terrorist platform," with rebuilt infrastructures for rockets, drones, and IEDs by groups like ISIS, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, or Shiite militias. It recommends Israel prepare for defensive actions, buffer zones, and humanitarian aid for minorities like the Druze near the border

Some sources note past calls by Israeli ministers for al-Sharaa's assassination, though the current focus is on defensive preparations Not all sources confirm an imminent "highly likely" scenario. Some emphasize foiled attempts and al-Sharaa's efforts to counter ISIS, such as Syria joining anti-ISIS coalitions.

While Israeli sources tend toward caution, Western reports highlight al-Sharaa's shift away from extremism. No major non-Israeli confirmations of the exact assessment were identified, indicating it may originate from intelligence briefings shared through media.

This occurs under a backdrop of U.S pressure on Israel to co-operate with Syria and Al-Sharaa, despite the fact that he has allowed anti-Israel terror networks to rebuild on Syrian soil, and that IDF soldiers were seriously wounded in his country conducting counter terror ops last week.

Israel-alma.org contributed to this article.