Tehran’s Strategy: Surviving Until Trump Fades
Mirroring the 2006 Nasrallah model, the Ayatollahs aim to win by simply not losing. While Israel and the U.S. recognize that airstrikes alone won't topple the regime, the strategy is shifting: grinding down military industries to accelerate economic ruin, leveraging Kurdish unrest to shatter the regime’s sense of control, and preparing for a potential Houthi ground surprise.
The topic dominating the headlines over the past 24 hours, support for Kurdish militias in western Iran, is not yet expected to be a dramatic turning point. However, it is a critical component in the broader effort to destabilize the Ayatollah regime. This initiative largely began as a CIA "hype" campaign, a deliberate move in the theater of psychological warfare.
Strengthening the Kurds is designed, first and foremost, to instill fear within the regime, making it tremble for its own survival and shattering its self-confidence. The hope is that other minorities will take note, emboldening their own motivations to revolt. On the ground, the Kurdish region houses a significant portion of the missile launch sites threatening Israel, such as those in Kermanshah. Armed groups cooperating with the West could fundamentally change the tactical picture and neutralize these threats.
Beyond psychological pressure, there is a tactical need to pin down the regime’s forces and weaken their grip on the rest of the country. The Iranian leadership relies on three powerful mechanisms to suppress its population: the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the Basij (armed militias subordinate to the IRGC), and the Internal Security Forces.
Furthermore, a Kurdish uprising is expected to force the regime to divert resources, potentially drawing Iraqi Shiite militias across the border to bolster the regime's defense, thereby thinning their presence elsewhere.
Decision-makers in Jerusalem and Washington clearly understand the Iranian strategy. It can be summed up in one word: Sumud (Steadfastness). Much like Hassan Nasrallah during the Second Lebanon War in 2006, the goal is to achieve victory through "non-defeat."
The Iranians continue to fire into Israeli territory primarily to signal that they are still fighting and have not been subdued, even as their launch capacity diminishes. This fire is intended to inflict civilian casualties in Israel, based on Tehran's conclusion that Israeli public pressure is the only way to force a ceasefire. Their goal is the exhaustion of both Israel and the Americans, to remain standing even when the "ammunition" runs low.
While there are no definitive signs yet that Mojtaba Khamenei has officially been tapped to replace his father, nor clear intelligence of coordinated fire between Hezbollah and Iran, the Houthi factor remains a major concern.
Israeli intelligence is skeptical of the Houthis' current "quiet" period. There is a growing fear within the intelligence community that the Houthis, possibly in tandem with Iraqi Shiite militias, are planning a significant ground maneuver. This concern has led to a massive mobilization of IDF combat divisions to the borders, particularly in the north. Military Intelligence (Aman) currently views this as its primary early-warning mission.
Both Israel and the U.S. are under no illusions: air campaigns alone will not collapse the regime. The current mission is two-fold:
The Long Game
Aman increasingly recognizes that undermining the regime’s foundations could take years—or perhaps less, provided that sanctions remain ironclad. Currently, the Iranian public is hesitant to take to the streets due to the extreme danger, but the economic pressure is mounting.
The primary obstacles currently are rising global oil prices and domestic political opposition to the war within the U.S. To counter this, the Americans have signaled they will use their Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize markets.
In the worst-case scenario, Israeli and American officials suggest that even if a formal end to the war is declared, Iran will be left to "stew in its own juices" under the weight of sanctions. The regime will find it nearly impossible to explain the ruinous state of the country to a population that is slowly losing its fear of the security apparatus. The economic damage is already being exacerbated by Iran’s own actions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively shuttered Bandar Abbas, their primary gateway for trade and supplies.