Sharon emphasises that while two seats may seem modest, "what matters, as we know, is the trend, and for these two parties the trend in recent weeks has been consistent: Eisenkot is weakening and Bennett is strengthening." The gap between them remains wide, but the direction is worth watching as the campaign enters its final stretch, he says.
A similar pattern is visible on the right. Likud has lost two seats, which have gone to Otzma Yehudit, now at 9 seats, and Religious Zionism, which has risen to 6. According to Sharon's analysis, the shift reflects a public understanding that what matters most is not the size of any one party but the size of the bloc as a whole, and voters are acting accordingly, spreading their support across the camp rather than concentrating it in the largest party.
The most intriguing figure may be Ofer Winter. After weeks of slow, steady decline that brought his Amcha Yisrael party close to falling below the 4-seat threshold, Winter has stabilised and even ticked upward slightly in recent days, holding at 4 seats. This comes despite a direct Likud campaign against him, the controversy over Yosef Haddad, and explicit statements from Netanyahu that Winter will join forces with Avigdor Liberman.
Sharon notes that "all of these should, in theory, have caused Amcha Yisrael to collapse, but instead we are seeing the opposite: Winter is strengthening slightly." He adds that it is still too early to say whether this represents a lasting trend or a one-time bounce, and that Winter's party remains one of the most intriguing to watch in the 2026 race.
The bottom line is that the current survey does not tell us who will win. It tells us the battle is still open, and that the center of gravity is shifting gradually away from the largest parties and toward the edges: toward the threshold, toward turnout rates, and toward each camp's ability to get its voters to the polls on election day. There, more than in any seat projection, the identity of the next government will be decided.
