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Defying the Predictions

"We have the Arabs" — election panel erupts

Dramatic post-election broadcast features clash over poll failures, minority-government scenarios and demographic arguments, as Shas stumbles and pollster Moti Leitner's predictions collapse

Sampling Error or Manipulation? Netanyahu Crushes Forecasts with Late 'Gevalt' Mobilization
'Kippot Shchorot' panel in dramatic election broadcast
'Kippot Shchorot' panel in dramatic election broadcast

Following the election results, the 'Kippot Shchorot' programme hosted by Yossi Sargobsky aired a special broadcast featuring left-wing protest leader Eivi Benjamin, strategic adviser Yehuda Eisikovitz, Res. Brig. Gen. Ram Aminach, and Kikar Shabbat journalist Moshe Manes.

The broadcast centred on the vast gaps between television-channel polls in the days before voting and the actual results flowing from the ballot boxes, as well as the collapse of several opposition parties.

"The polls tried to shrink Netanyahu — the gevalt campaign worked"

The discussion opened with sharp criticism of the poll forecasts, which predicted significantly lower numbers for Likud than the reality. Panellists debated whether this was a sampling error or outright "consciousness engineering".

Ram Aminach explained that beyond the pollsters, Netanyahu operated in the final two days with his familiar "gevalt campaign" method, which drew mandates from his right-wing partners and exhausted the field.

Eivi Benjamin, by contrast, refused to be impressed by Likud's size and argued that the only test is the bloc picture: "The Likud bloc dropped from 64 mandates to the 54–55 range. Netanyahu lost his Knesset majority and will not be able to form a government. The change bloc, together with the Arab parties that constitute a majority against Bibi, can immediately replace the Knesset speaker and advance rapid legislation, from a state commission of inquiry to the draft law."

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A fierce argument erupted on the panel over demographic claims, with mention of the left's ongoing decline in strength versus growth in the chareidi and religious sectors. Benjamin for his part claimed that Likud operates as a "jobs factory" and sharply attacked right-wing media outlets.

The discussion's peak moment came when Ram Aminach presented a surprising political-legal thesis regarding the possibility of Gadi Eisenkot forming a minority government.

According to him, under Israeli law, forming a government does not necessarily require the support of 61 MKs but rather a simple majority against opponents. Therefore, even if Avigdor Lieberman refuses to rely on votes from the Arab parties, if the Arab parties vote in favour of establishing an Eisenkot government but remain outside the coalition, the government will be formed.

Aminach stressed that such a government would be especially stable: to bring down a sitting government requires a constructive no-confidence vote by 61 MKs who must agree on an alternative candidate, a scenario impossible for the right and the Arab parties together.

Another election round or escalation with Iran?

Strategic adviser Yehuda Eisikovitz argued that there is no chance of partnership between the blocs, and that the political system is heading toward repeat elections, a move that would, in his view, bring another collapse of left-wing parties.

Toward the end, the security chapter opened, against the backdrop of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech once again warning of the Iranian regime's intentions to destroy Israel. Panel members discussed whether the region faces escalation before the US midterm elections, how President Donald Trump's policy in the Persian Gulf will affect matters, and what a pre-emptive Israeli strike would mean.

Watch the full broadcast and the heated studio discussion

Credits >>>

  • Investigation, production and content: Yossi Sargobsky
  • Editor-in-chief: Chaim Ilouz
  • Direction and cinematography: Avi Ludmir, Lami Azuz
  • Branding and graphic editing: Yedidya Cohen
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