While Iranians are dying
WSJ: Gulf States Beg Trump: Don't Strike Iran - Oil Markets Could Explode
Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar are privately lobbying the Trump administration to refrain from military strikes or regime change efforts targeting Iran, warning of catastrophic consequences for global oil markets and the U.S. economy
Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar are privately pressing the Trump administration to avoid military action against Iran or attempts to overthrow its regime, citing severe risks to global oil markets and the U.S. economy, according to a Wall Street Journal report published yesterday.
Led by Saudi Arabia, these Gulf nations have lobbied White House officials, emphasizing that any escalation could lead to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil flows, potentially via blockades or attacks on tankers, driving up energy prices amid already turbulent markets.
The warnings highlight fears of broader instability, including "chaos and splintering" within Iran that might result in a more dangerous scenario, such as a full takeover by the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Saudi officials have reportedly assured Tehran they would not participate in any conflict or permit U.S. use of their airspace for strikes, aiming to de-escalate and distance themselves from potential U.S. moves.
While acknowledging no affection for Iran's current leadership, the Gulf states' reluctance stems from concerns over domestic repercussions and economic fallout, particularly as Iran grapples with nationwide protests over economic collapse and a weakened stance following the 2025 12-day war with Israel and U.S. forces.
Human rights groups report over 500 protesters killed in the unrest, with Trump vowing "help is on the way" and canceling meetings with Iranian officials until the violence stops.
This lobbying effort follows U.S. notifications to these allies to prepare for possible strikes, amid Trump's national security team deliberations on options like sanctions, cyber operations, or military action against IRGC sites.
The push reflects a shift in Gulf dynamics, where traditional rivals of Iran now prioritize stability over confrontation, especially with oil prices volatile and regional tensions high.Israeli officials are monitoring closely, given ongoing threats from Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah. Prediction markets estimate 30-46% odds of a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran by month's end, though Gulf advocacy may temper aggressive moves.