American intelligence assessments have concluded that Iran may be preparing to widen the war, and an Israeli source familiar with the details said the warnings have a basis, describing last week's missile strikes on Jordan as a deliberate signal from Tehran.
The assessments, reported by The New York Times and cited by Ynet, find that Iran has come out of six months of intermittent fighting with the United States more confident in its ability to inflict damage across the region and increasingly convinced it can keep the war going for months. Officials familiar with the reports say Tehran now has a clearer read on both its own military capabilities and the limits of American power, and that its hard-line leadership may be considering a broader confrontation.
The Jordan strikes are cited as evidence. On August 31, the Revolutionary Guards fired missiles and drones at the King Hussein and Al Azraq bases in an operation it called "Punishment of the Aggressor," in retaliation for American strikes on Larak Island. Jordan said its air defenses intercepted eight missiles that entered its airspace, with no injuries reported. The following day Jordan intercepted ten more ballistic missiles, with three landing in remote areas, while Kuwait and Bahrain activated air defenses against incoming Iranian drones.
Two motives run through the assessment. The first is Iran's internal situation, which has deteriorated sharply under the economic siege. The rial has hit record lows, fuel shortages have paralyzed much of the public transport system, and Israeli assessments last week held that a cornered Tehran is more likely to escalate through Hezbollah than to strike Israel directly, in order to disrupt daily life and derail the Israel-Lebanon talks.
The second is timing. American officials believe Iran intends to keep fighting at least through the US midterm elections, calculating that the war and the high gasoline prices caused by disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are damaging President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. The strait carried roughly a fifth of the world's oil before the war. That leverage is unlikely to survive the vote in November, which is part of why Washington expects Tehran to press now rather than later.
The assessments describe an Iranian intention to set the region alight by expanding its strikes, but they also point to real hesitation in Tehran about hitting Israel directly, for two reasons.
The first is the expected Israeli response. Iranian decision-makers understand that a strike on Israel would draw a far heavier retaliation than the fire they have directed at Gulf states, where they calculate the cost to themselves is limited.
The second, which the sources emphasized did not come from an Israeli source, is Israeli politics. Tehran is closely tracking the Israeli election campaign ahead of the October 27 vote and has concluded that a major escalation could work against its own interests by strengthening the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a more extreme scenario, an attack could delay or suspend the election altogether, an outcome the regime also wants to avoid.
Trump is not currently pursuing negotiations, arguing instead that economic pressure will eventually force Iran into concessions on Hormuz and, later, on its nuclear program. Officials who reviewed the intelligence warned that in the short term more sanctions could produce the opposite result and trigger further Iranian escalation.
US officials say Tehran could repeat the tactics it used in July, when it struck American bases across the region, killed three Americans in Jordan, attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and hit infrastructure in Kuwait. Washington is also tracking Iranian cyber activity, and believes Iran-linked hackers were most likely behind attacks on more than 100 American water systems in late July.
In Israel, the military has been updating operational plans in coordination with Washington. A senior Israeli official said this week that if Israel is required to act alongside the United States, its response could include strikes on Iranian national infrastructure.
