Journalist predicts Netanyahu defeat, Smotrich surge tonight

Veteran journalist and commentator Yossi Elituv has published a stark assessment ahead of tonight's exit polls, warning that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud are heading for a severe defeat alongside a meteoric rise for Religious Zionism chairman Bezalel Smotrich.

"Bibi heading for crushing defeat tonight, only a miracle will save him," Elituv opened in a post on X. The commentator pointed to shifts in the mandate map within the right-wing bloc and identified the source of Likud's losses: "I've been trying in recent days to understand how the surge toward Smotrich crosses camps, to the point where he may find himself marching shoulder to shoulder with Itamar Ben-Gvir."

Elituv described the different dynamics between the Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit factions, highlighting the new constituencies flowing to Smotrich's party: "Ben-Gvir brings the votes of the radical right. But with Smotrich, a more interesting movement is taking shape: on one hand, new chareidi voters drawn to Leitner; on the other, disappointed Likudniks who find it easier to vote for him than for Ben-Gvir."

According to Elituv, the combination of these groups with Smotrich's traditional base is creating a dramatic effect at the polls: "All of these join his home crowd in the settlements, and expand the circle of voters far beyond the boundaries of the public whose flag he carries. We started counting him at four mandates, and according to my assessment this morning, tonight could end with eight as well, maybe more."

Elituv concluded his analysis by stating this represents one of the central developments of the current election day: "If this materializes, it's one of the big stories of these elections. Worth putting a big spotlight on Smotrich today. He's dining at many tables, and the main bill, in my assessment, will be paid by Likud."