The Venezuela Fear: Why Iran’s Leaders Think They Are the Next Target for Capture

The Islamic Republic of Iran is currently facing a strategic nightmare as nationwide protests enter their second week, leaving the regime’s top brass fearing they may share the same fate as the recently captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Internal sources describe a state of "double pressure" where the leadership is caught between a population driven to madness by economic collapse and a White House that has shown it is willing to use elite commandos to remove hostile dictators. Just one day before U.S. special forces seized Maduro in Caracas, President Trump issued a blunt warning on social media, stating that if the Iranian leadership kills its own protesters, the United States will "come to save them." This threat has effectively narrowed Tehran's manoeuvrability, creating a vacuum where traditional methods of mass suppression now carry the risk of a direct American military response.

Since the protests began on December 28, at least 17 people have been killed and hundreds more have been detained, including individuals the regime has labeled as foreign agents. However, unlike the 2022 uprisings, the current unrest is deeply rooted in a catastrophic financial crisis that intensified after the "Operation Lion’s Heart" military strikes in June. During that period, Israeli and American forces severely damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and eliminated key military commanders, leaving the economy in a tailspin. The Iranian rial has lost nearly half its value in the last year alone, and official inflation reached over 42 percent in December. Officials in Tehran are now openly worried that Iran has become "the next victim" of an aggressive new American foreign policy.

The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has attempted to pivot the narrative by accusing "enemies of the Republic" of fueling the riots, but the slogans on the street tell a different story. Protesters are no longer just demanding cheaper bread, they are chanting "Death to the Dictator" and calling for the total end of the Islamic Republic. To mitigate the anger, President Masoud Pezeshkian announced an emergency "electronic credit" system to provide monthly food subsidies for the poor, but many see this as a temporary bandage on a terminal wound. With the memory of the June airstrikes fresh and the image of Maduro in handcuffs broadcast globally, the regime is struggling to find a path that maintains its grip on power without triggering a total war that could lead to its final collapse.