Russia’s Oil-and-Gas Revenues Nearly Double in March as Iran War Lifts Prices

Russia is generating at least $760 million a day from oil and gas exports, with Kremlin energy revenues on track to nearly double this month to almost $24 billion, according to new estimates from the Kyiv School of Economics.

The surge, detailed in a report released yesterday (Wednesday) by the Ukrainian think tank and cited by The Telegraph, stems from higher global demand and prices for Russian crude and natural gas triggered by the ongoing U.S.-led military campaign in Iran, known as Operation Epic Fury. Temporary U.S. sanctions waivers have further eased export flows, the economists found.

Even if the conflict in Iran ends within weeks, Russia’s full-year 2026 oil-and-gas export revenues are projected to reach about $218.5 billion, roughly 63% above pre-conflict forecasts, the Kyiv School of Economics said. In a more prolonged scenario, the windfall could climb as high as $386.5 billion.

The estimates show how Moscow has emerged as an early economic beneficiary of the Iran conflict, which has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and sent benchmark oil prices higher. The additional revenue is helping offset earlier shortfalls and could ease pressure on Russia’s budget as it continues its war in Ukraine, the report noted.

The Kremlin has not commented on the projections. Russian energy officials have previously said that higher prices and Asian market demand have helped stabilize export earnings despite Western sanctions.

The Kyiv School of Economics based its analysis on shipping data, price benchmarks and Russian customs figures. The group has produced regular assessments of Russia’s wartime economy since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.