Former Defense Official: Iran War Could Kick Off After WC Final

Former senior defense official and Iran nuclear expert Avner Vilan said Thursday that the current confrontation with Iran is likely to remain in a tense holding pattern until at least July 20, the day after the World Cup final.

Speaking to Nissim Mishal and Anat Davidov on 103FM, Vilan analyzed the latest statements by US President Donald Trump and the ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

According to Vilan, the situation now has three possible paths: a return to full-scale war, a diplomatic agreement, or continued friction below the threshold of open war.

“The options are a return to war, an agreement, and in the middle, the continuation of the current situation,” Vilan said.

He described the current phase as a “double siege” accompanied by limited clashes, not only around Iran and the Gulf, but also in the north against Hezbollah.

“It is all connected to everything,” he said.

Vilan argued that for now, both sides see some advantage in maintaining the current situation. Trump, he said, is managing to keep global oil prices within a tolerable range, while Iran is under deepening economic pressure because of its inability to export oil normally.

“They are losing hundreds of millions of dollars every day because they cannot export oil,” Vilan said. “The Strait of Hormuz is closed. They are heading toward a very difficult summer, with power outages and water problems.”

At the same time, Vilan said Iran still believes it has leverage. By threatening global markets through the closure of the strait, Tehran continues to exert pressure without making concessions on the nuclear issue.

“They have not moved a millimeter on the nuclear front,” he said.

Vilan said a major war does not currently appear likely, but warned that the situation could change quickly.

Looking at the broader strategic picture, Vilan said the confrontation with Iran has only two ultimate outcomes: either regime change or an Iranian nuclear weapon.

In the immediate term, however, he expects the current situation to continue.

“The continuation of the current situation at least until July 20, the day after the World Cup final, looks like the most likely scenario,” he said. “Right now, it does not look like either side wants to move toward an agreement.”