Polls: Trump's Congress at risk in midterms

The Democratic advantage rests heavily on independent voters, who prefer Democratic control of the House by a significant margin of approximately 54% to 30% for Republicans. Polls also show high motivation levels among Democratic voters, about 79% report very high motivation to vote, compared to a decline in willingness to vote among the Republican base, which stands at around 69%.

The Senate race is presented as far tighter. The Senate has 100 senators, two from each state, and in these elections one-third of Senate seats are up for election. Republicans currently hold a majority of 53 to 47, and to gain control, Democrats need to flip at least 3 - 4 seats. Forecasts estimate about a 72% chance that Democrats will succeed in reversing the balance and winning a Senate majority.

The race is being decided in a small number of competitive states such as Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and North Carolina. If Republicans manage to defend their seats in these states, the Senate may remain in their hands.

The main factors eroding the Republican position include the continued rise in fuel prices, which have reached an average of approximately $4.16–$4.50 per gallon in some states, and ongoing inflation. In Ohio, for example, fuel prices have risen 35% over the past year. The continuing confrontation with Iran and its economic effects make it difficult for Republicans to create a narrative of stability.

Against the backdrop of these forecasts, the United States is bracing for an unprecedented crisis ahead of the midterm elections. Election officials across the country are taking emergency measures in response to administration efforts to influence the results, according to a Reuters report. In various states, security and administrative teams are preparing contingency plans for the possibility that federal agents will be sent to polling stations or that government officials will attempt to demand direct access to voting machines.

The central concern among professionals is direct interference by the Trump administration in the traditional election management that is normally the responsibility of states and local authorities. The White House rejected the claims and argued that this is about enforcing election laws and maintaining public confidence. Bill Gates countered that "election officials are concerned about the role the federal government is going to play."

In an unprecedented propaganda move, Iran's Revolutionary Guards published a dramatic 26-page document about a week ago calling on the American public, students, and academics to rise up at the ballot box and oust Donald Trump and the Republicans in the midterm elections. The letter, titled "An Open Letter to the American People," was published in English and Persian in official Iranian media outlets.

The document is aimed primarily at young people, academics, and media figures in the United States, calling on them to "take control into their hands," oppose President Donald Trump's policies, reject support for Israel and foreign wars, and reconsider the choice of leaders in the upcoming midterm elections. The organization's spokesman, Brigadier General Hossein Mohebby, said at a press conference that he does not expect the letter to change the administration's behavior, but expressed belief that voters might hear the message if they become more familiar with "the facts."

The midterm elections in the United States will be held on November 3, 2026, and until then polls are expected to continue updating. However, the current gap between the parties points to the possibility of significant change in the balance of power in the American Congress.