JD Vance: Israel relations cost GOP the midterm elections

US Vice President JD Vance posted a lengthy thread Wednesday evening on X acknowledging the Republican defeat in the midterm elections and naming the war with Iran as the central factor in the results. "Our voters did turn out, but they may not have voted for us," Vance wrote.

In the thread, published following the Republican Party's dramatic midterm defeat, Vance said the campaign team had focused obsessively on "voter composition", whether the electorate resembled 2024's enough to deliver a Republican victory. "Despite polls predicting a Democratic blowout, the data kept telling us the same story: in some states turnout was decent, in others it was very strong, and in no state was it catastrophic," he wrote.

Vance described a conversation with "the smartest data guy I know," who asked whether the numbers pointed to a major surprise. "No," the expert replied. "We might do better than the polls suggest, but the data shows that many voters who supported Trump-Vance in 2024 are angry, and planning to vote for the other side."

"Well, in hindsight, it looks almost prophetic," Vance admitted. He noted that in Florida, for instance, the voter composition leaned Republican by 9 points, only slightly worse than 2024. "There were certainly places where we could have achieved higher turnout, but the main problem isn't turnout. The central issue is that many who voted Trump-Vance in 2024 chose Democrats in 2026."

Four reasons for the loss

The Vice President cited a pollster who conducted in-depth research asking voters who abandoned the Republican camp what might bring them back. The four leading answers, which made up nearly all responses, were: ending the war, focusing on cost of living and inflation, putting "America First," and changing relations with Israel.

"Our voters came to the polls. And these four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats," Vance wrote. He added that "while many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos-Duffy for calling for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was correct."

Vance warned against "many attempts at psychological manipulation" in the coming months. "Expect to hear establishment politicians claiming the solution to our troubles is amnesty for illegal immigrants," he wrote. "I'm open to the idea that we need to change how we enforce, for instance, by focusing much more on businesses that employ workers without legal status, but anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you."

"The reason for our loss is the war. The President himself said so last night," Vance clarified. He added: "If you want to argue it was justified, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth the price, do so. Argue it was a price worth paying. Whether you agree or not, at least that's an honest position."

Closing the thread, Vance called on his supporters: "I remain optimistic about our country. To those of you who are angry and want to say 'I told you so', you're right, you did tell us. Channel that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. And to those of you who are simply angry about the results, well, you have good reason to be. Let's take that anger and get back to work saving our country."

The thread comes against the backdrop of the Democratic Party's historic midterm victory, in which it seized control of both houses of Congress and dealt a severe blow to President Donald Trump. The US President also acknowledged that "some of the results because of Iran," and made clear he would veto "crazy things from the Democrats."