Israel’s military censor has cleared for publication warning signs picked up on the night of October 6-7, 2023 that were not correctly interpreted before Hamas launched its attack. The details had been barred from publication for two years.
Among the newly cleared signs are the movement of Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif to an underground facility, the preparation of rocket launch pits and checks carried out in Hamas’s anti-tank array.
According to the details now published, unusual activity by senior Hamas figures was identified at around 23:30. Close to midnight, Southern Command’s intelligence officer informed the command’s chief that Deif had left his home and might be heading to an emergency underground site. In response, an additional surveillance drone was diverted from Judea and Samaria to the Gaza Strip, and a Shin Bet “Tequila” team was dispatched south. The team was meant to operate advanced capabilities and was not designed to deal with a terrorist infiltration. Several explanations were raised in the conversation between the two officers, including Hamas fears of an IDF operation, a training exercise, or a surprise localized operation.
The Chief of Staff’s office was first updated at 01:46, after the head of the Shin Bet director’s bureau passed the information to his counterpart in the Chief of Staff’s bureau. At 02:30, further intelligence arrived indicating that operatives in the Gaza Strip had begun preparing rocket launch pits. At the same time, an IDF drone identified a Hamas operative removing a tarpaulin from a rocket launcher in central Gaza. The accumulating information prompted a round of calls among senior defense officials, including the head of Southern Command, the head of the Operations Directorate and the Chief of Staff.
Despite the accumulation of signs, the IDF did not change its assessment. At a situation assessment held at Southern Command at around 03:00, then-commander Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman concluded that Hamas’s Nukhba forces were in routine and that no immediate event had been identified. The Chief of Staff’s overnight assessment stated that while there was no logic in a Hamas offensive, the information should be examined through a stringent lens in order to fully understand Hamas’s intentions and what might surprise the IDF.
Hours later, at 06:30, Hamas launched its surprise attack on southern Israel.
According to the Times of Israel, Deif’s movement underground was one of at least five warning signs identified that night. Most of them had remained classified until now.
The disclosure comes days after Al Jazeera aired rare footage of Deif and other senior Hamas commanders in Gaza’s tunnels. The broadcast also showed a document the network said was Deif’s final operational order for the attack, signed on October 5, 2023, after a six-hour command meeting. Deif was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Khan Yunis in July 2024.
