Israeli Intelligence Forecasts Iranian Regime Collapse Within One Year of War’s End

While the world watches the smoke rise from precision strikes and the arrival of thousands of U.S. paratroopers, Israeli intelligence is looking at a much longer horizon. According to a high-level assessment by the Mossad and IDF Intelligence (Aman), the removal of the Iranian regime will not be an overnight "miracle," but rather a deliberate, year-long process triggered by the end of current hostilities.

The report, authored by veteran analyst Avi Ashkenazi, suggests that President Trump’s recent diplomatic maneuvers, including a publicized five-day suspension of infrastructure strikes, are not a retreat, but a "small ladder" provided to Tehran to allow them to climb down from the ultimatum regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the assessment, the Trump administration’s talk of a five-day pause is a calculated tactical "de-escalation" intended to test the Iranian leadership. Israeli intelligence officials believe that even if the U.S. continues infrastructure strikes, they may focus on "pyrotechnic" targets, such as fuel tanks or transformers,.that create high visibility and psychological pressure without necessarily destroying the country’s entire foundation at once.

The immediate goal is to force a "surrender" on three non-negotiable American terms:

Nuclear Assets: The full surrender of 450 kg of enriched uranium.

Maritime Access: Total agreement to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

Ballistic Oversight: The dismantling or permanent monitoring of Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Creating the "Platform" for Revolution

Contrary to some media speculation, the Mossad and the IDF have reportedly maintained from Day One that military strikes alone cannot replace a regime. Instead, the "work of the military machine" is designed to shake, weaken, and expose the regime’s vulnerabilities.

The ultimate objective is to create a "platform" that allows the Iranian people to take to the streets and finish the job. Intelligence officials emphasize that for a coup or revolution to succeed, a viable local or exiled alternative must be ready to step into the vacuum, a process that is expected to "ripen" over the course of roughly a year following the conclusion of active fighting.

As the U.S. signals it is open to talks, a major question remains: Who is actually in charge in Tehran? With the regime in chaos, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has emerged as the "strongman" currently managing the crisis and negotiating with the U.S..

This power shift is exacerbated by unconfirmed reports circulating within Iran that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Supreme Leader, was recently removed from life support, a development that, if true, would mean the end of the Khamenei dynasty and the start of a brutal internal succession battle.