Israel Lost the War

Two years have passed since October 7.

In historical terms, this is a long period of time. It is long enough for nations at war to shift paradigms, reshape alliances, and create new diplomatic realities. Less than two years after the Yom Kippur War, Israel and Egypt signed interim agreements. The Rhodes Agreements were concluded only a few months after the War of Independence. The Sinai Campaign ended with political arrangements within half a year. Even the period that followed the Six Day War eventually produced the War of Attrition, which in turn ended with a ceasefire that shaped the next phase of regional history.

Measured against these precedents, the lack of any meaningful strategic or diplomatic progress since October 7 is striking. In several arenas, Israel’s situation has not merely failed to improve. It has grown more precarious.

The Palestinian Issue Has Returned with Greater Strength

The so called Swamps Offensive did not push the Palestinian question off the international agenda. It revived it and strengthened it. Global narratives have shifted in ways that deeply disadvantage Israel. This issue, is the number one obstacle for regional stability, Israel with its fear and indecisive nature of action, has brought it back to the forefront. By missing this opportunity to create a paradigm shift on this focal issue it has done more than anyone to secure the continuance of the Middle eastern cycle of violence.

Regional Actors Are Advancing While Israel Stagnates

Qatar, which already received a significant political lifeline from Israel, when it was absolutely isolated back in 2018, now enjoys regional influence that often surpasses Israel’s own.

Turkey is operating deep within the Israeli strategic arena with American acquiescence. Egypt has remained firmly committed to a long standing doctrine that treats Gaza as a strategic time bomb directed at Israel, a doctrine dating back to 1948.

The Egyptian doctrine continues to succeed. Egyptian resolve has not wavered. In fact, the Egyptian military buildup is now at an all time high, and Egypt appears to have achieved its objectives while Israel remains constrained with regards to its Southern border.

At the same time, the balance of military power in the region is shifting in unprecedented ways.

Turkey is expected to receive advanced F 35 fighter jets, a platform once understood as a defining element of Israel’s qualitative military edge.

Saudi Arabia is expected to receive F 35s as well, along with civilian nuclear capabilities that include domestic enrichment under American approval.

These developments reflect a fundamental reordering of United States security commitments in the region. Israel is no longer the only preferred strategic partner.

In Syria, the single arena where Israel produced real regime altering effects, the vacuum has been filled by Turkish backed jihadist forces that operate with American protection.

A Tactical Success in Lebanon without Strategic Momentum

Israel weakened Hezbollah and improved the strategic situation along its northern front. Yet international willingness to support a comprehensive effort to remove the Hezbollah threat has all but disappeared. A rare strategic opening has been lost. And good luck gaining international credit for any meaningful counter terrorist action in Lebanon.

Iran Is Advancing with Renewed Confidence

Israeli experts estimate that Iran can rebuild its entire missile arsenal within nine months. Reports have already emerged regarding renewed activity related to its nuclear program. Israel is not shaping the tempo of these developments.

One cannot deny the legendary actions taken by Israel against Iran, sadly, a deathblow never arrived and Iran should be back on its feet within a year.

Diplomatic Paralysis and Growing American Frustration

No reasonable observer expects Israel to permanently remove its adversaries’ desire to fight. The minimum expectation is that Israel will shape the diplomatic and military environment in ways that support long term national interests.

Instead, Israel has allowed a combination of hesitation and ineffective action to deepen its dependence on the United States. This dependence is creating new tensions. No wonder that among younger Americans in both political parties, open hostility toward Israel is becoming a widespread bipartisan norm.

Meanwhile, countries such as Qatar and Pakistan have leveraged the war to shape American public opinion to an extent never before seen. They have succeeded in shifting attitudes across a generation.

Opportunities Lost Through Poor Strategic Management

Even where Israel achieved tangible military results, these gains were undermined by the absence of clear political goals and by poor management of the war. Developments that could have shaped the next decade evaporated amid indecision, and lack of endgame implementation.

Leadership at the Center of the Crisis

A significant portion of these failures stem from the leadership style of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

His decision making is hesitant and overly transactional. Every move is examined only after a pause to consider how it might be traded for political advantage. For him, nothing is fixed and everything is negotiable. This style may sustain a political career, but it has crippled Israel at a moment that requires clarity, decisiveness, and vision.