Don the Electoral Magician

Five Lessons From Trump's Win - And A Warning to Republicans

Donald Trump won a victory for the history books, and it's worth starting to understand why, even at this early stage.

Former President and President-elect Donald Trump. (Photo: Jonah Elkowitz/Shutterstock)

Donald Trump has won an improbable victory against what seemed enormous odds, and although it will take time to truly absorb this news and understand it - much of the voting analysis hasn't rightly begun - there are some lessons we can take away even now:

1. The "Blue Wall" Is Now A Revolving Door

When Joe Biden won back all three states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, one could be forgiven for thinking this was a fluke, a chance victory due to the unique hatred of Hillary Clinton. Trump winning all three states again - and by a larger margin - shows that they truly are up for grabs for the Republicans.

2. Men Are Now An Electoral Factor To Be Reckoned With

From Obama onward, the focus of both parties has been on either winning over women or at least not losing too many women. The idea was that women vote more and are thus more important than men, who were ignored. Trump's victory with men - and not just white men, but also increasing minorities of minority men - showed this to be badly wrong.

3. The Hispanic Vote Is Up For Grabs

Ever since Obama reversed George W's gains with Hispanic Americans, Republicans have fretted and Democrats cheered at the largest growing minority becoming an automatic vote for anything Democrats want or do. Trump's massive inroads with Hispanic Americans virtually anywhere show this to be badly mistaken, with real ramifications for future elections.

4. The Education Realignment is Real and Lasting

Trump's major gains of votes everywhere in the United States with anyone with less than a BA and sometimes less than high school shows that the Republicans are increasingly a party dependent on a majority of low-propensity but more numerous voters. Gone are the days of the college student-dependent party with Ivy League pretensions.

5. The "Popular Vote" Talking Point Is Likely Dead

It will take a few weeks to tally all the votes, but it is likely that Donald Trump will win the popular vote, too, ending claims that Republicans can no longer do so at all (Democrats' argument) or that they can only do so by becoming Democrats lite (Republicans' argument).

And a warning for Republicans:

The Democrats will recover from this. If not the next election, then one of them after that. They'll find candidates who make their voters actually want to vote for them and find ways to appeal to men that are better than the sad and pitiful attempts Kamala's campaign put out.

And this is Donald Trump's last hurrah. He cannot serve as President for a term after this even if he wanted to and could. The Republican Party either finds a way to adapt to its new voter base and make them full Republicans rather than Trump voters on loan, or it can go back to fretting about being a permanent minority again.

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I hope the Republicans heed the warning.
The Jewish Patriarch 06.11.24

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