Democrats head into Tuesday's midterm elections with strong tailwinds. President Donald Trump's approval ratings are low, voters are worried about high prices, and the war with Iran is unpopular. But analysts and strategists warn that the favorable conditions may not translate into a sweeping takeover of Congress.
Six analysts and party strategists told Reuters in a report published Monday that several factors could hold Democrats back, even if the party makes gains.
The first obstacle is the map itself. Partisan polarization and redistricting have sharply reduced the number of competitive House races over the past three decades. Analysts estimate that only 40 to 50 of the chamber's 435 seats are truly in play this year. Most expect Democrats to retake the House, but with a majority of perhaps 5 to 20 seats. In 2018, by comparison, Democrats picked up 41 seats.
Bill Galston, a former White House adviser to President Bill Clinton, said a gain of 25 seats would give Democrats a working majority, but not a large one. A narrow majority would make it harder to pass contentious legislation or claim a sweeping mandate.
The Senate is an even steeper climb. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a 51-49 majority, and many of their top targets are in states Trump won by double digits in 2024. David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report said that even a 10-point national swing toward Democrats would likely leave the party two seats short. Republicans are also keeping races close in states Democrats had hoped would be safer, including Maine, New Hampshire and Michigan.
Money is another factor. Republicans and their allied super PACs entered the final weeks of the campaign with a cash advantage of several hundred million dollars, according to filings and Federal Election Commission data. Trump spent more than $277 million, mostly through his MAGA Inc. super PAC, on a late wave of TV ads and direct mail. Elon Musk has spent about $366 million this cycle to support Republicans, including $276 million since July. By the end of September, Republicans had outspent Democrats by $188 million on advertising in Senate battlegrounds, according to AdImpact.
"Any time you have one side with a big financial advantage and the ability to pour it into races at the last minute, it can tip the result of close races," said Andrew Busch, a public policy professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville.
Polls may also be overstating the Democratic edge. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, which closed October 26, found registered voters favoring Democrats 47 percent to 36 percent on the generic congressional ballot. But polls have often underestimated Republican support, with the biggest misses coming when Trump was on the ballot. He is not a candidate this year, but he has urged supporters to vote as if he were. Polls also understated Republican strength in the 2014 midterms, though in 2022 they underestimated Democrats.
Turnout could prove decisive. Democratic voters appear more enthusiastic, but young, Black and Hispanic voters, key parts of the party's coalition, have historically turned out at lower rates in midterms than in presidential elections. Early voting data shows higher Democratic engagement, but Republicans say many of their voters wait until Election Day. Older voters, who have leaned Republican in recent years, made up nearly twice as much of the 2022 electorate as voters under 50.
Finally, Republicans have sought to paint Democrats as socialists, pointing to primary wins by Democratic Socialists of America members and other progressives, though fewer than two dozen won this year. Some Democrats in competitive races have responded by declaring themselves proud capitalists. Galston said the attacks could shave a point or two off the Democratic advantage in close races.
