The United States and Iran are preparing for the possibility of renewed fighting, according to Israeli security assessments, as American forces continue to build up in the Middle East and talks to end the war show little sign of progress.
Iran currently has about 1,700 ballistic missiles with the range to reach Israel, security officials told Israel's Channel 12 News in a report aired Sunday. That is roughly 800 fewer than prewar estimates, according to Israel Hayom. Iran also holds an estimated 80,000 drones, which Israeli officials assess are intended mainly for strategic targets in the Persian Gulf rather than Israel.
Channel 12 reported that Iran has produced only several dozen new missiles since Operation Roaring Lion, the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign launched in February, and has not returned to large-scale production. Other estimates differ: Israel Hayom, citing foreign reports, put Iran's postwar production rate at 150 to 300 missiles a month.
The U.S. naval presence in the region now closely resembles the deployment on the eve of that operation, according to data from Israel's Institute for National Security Studies. It includes two aircraft carriers and 14 warships, 13 of them destroyers, not counting destroyers positioned off Israel's coast. Officials are weighing whether to send an additional carrier, either as reinforcement or as a rotation. The USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group, along with about 10,000 additional troops and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, is due in the region by the end of November.
The air picture is less complete. More American intelligence and transport aircraft have arrived in recent days, and the number of refueling tankers matches prewar levels, according to Channel 12. But as of Sunday evening, no F-22 fighters or B-1 and B-52 bombers had been identified in the region, and fewer F-15s were present than before the previous campaign.
Israel has completed its own preparations for a possible resumption of fighting, including an operation to bring munitions and interceptors from the United States and Europe, Israeli media reported.
The tensions sharpened Monday when U.S. forces struck an Iranian missile launcher on Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials told NBC News that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had fired surface-to-air missiles at an American aircraft, and described the strike as defensive rather than a resumption of major combat.
Iran's army spokesman, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akraminia, warned Tuesday that any further U.S. action would be met with a response broader than before, and that a new war would not be confined to West Asia, according to Iranian media. His comments echoed a statement Saturday from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who ordered the armed forces to respond to any threat without geographic limits.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that the two countries remain far from a deal and that Tehran would not accept Washington's "excessive demands." The official said Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz must be met before nuclear talks can begin. Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Monday night to discuss a draft agreement.
President Trump has said he would not strike Iran before Tuesday's midterm elections. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Washington had asked Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense operation after the vote, though Trump has not made a final decision.
