Hezbollah's Missile Arsenal Loses Strategic Value, Arab Experts Say

Once considered one of Israel’s most formidable threats, Hezbollah’s missile arsenal has become more of a strategic burden than a deterrent, according to senior Arab military experts. The remarks come amid reports that the Lebanese government is preparing to vote on a plan to consolidate all armed capabilities under the control of the Lebanese army, a direct challenge to Hezbollah’s military autonomy.

In interviews with Saudi-based daily Asharq Al-Awsat, retired Arab generals asserted that Israeli intelligence and air superiority have rendered Hezbollah’s medium- and long-range missile capabilities virtually obsolete. “They still have missiles, but they’re easy targets for Israel,” said Brig. Gen. (ret.) Khalil Al-Helou, a former Lebanese army officer.

Israeli Strikes Crippling Capabilities

The Israeli Air Force has systematically dismantled over 90% of Hezbollah’s known launch sites and military infrastructure south of the Litani River, according to Lebanese security sources and corroborated by Israeli defense officials. Other launch platforms have reportedly been dismantled by the Lebanese army itself.

Hezbollah has not responded militarily to recent Israeli strikes, but Israeli analysts say that if the group feels cornered, retaliation remains possible.

Surveillance Network Leaves No Room to Hide

Al-Helou emphasized that Hezbollah has lost not only key logistical hubs but also the strategic depth it once relied on. He described Israel’s surveillance apparatus, comprising drones, satellites, biometric sensors, and AI-assisted thermal imaging as “unprecedented,” effectively making long-range missile launches a “suicidal operation.”

“Southern Lebanon is no longer a viable launch zone, and the northern Bekaa Valley has also been targeted,” he said. “Even if missiles remain, activating them would almost certainly trigger a preemptive Israeli strike.”

Israel has also integrated laser interception technology alongside its Iron Dome system, further weakening the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s arsenal, Al-Helou added.

West-Bank arab citizen (Photo: Flash90/Nasser Ishtayyeh)

Missiles as Political Leverage

Brig. Gen. (ret.) Nizar Abdel-Qader, another former Lebanese officer, noted that Hezbollah’s long-range missiles now serve more symbolic than tactical purposes. “The group clings to its heavy weapons not for operational use, but as a political bargaining chip,” he said.

With smuggling routes from Syria increasingly restricted and sea and land borders tightly monitored, replenishing weapon stockpiles has become nearly impossible, he added.

From Deterrent to Liability

According to Israeli intelligence estimates, Hezbollah has lost about 70% of its rocket and missile stockpiles since the outbreak of the current conflict. The group has now shifted its focus to short-range, portable weaponry for defensive purposes rather than offensive strikes, essentially adopting a local deterrence strategy.

“The balance of power has changed,” said Abdel-Qader. “The same missile that threatened Tel Aviv ten years ago is now tracked in real-time by AI.”

Both Abdel-Qader and Al-Helou agree: Hezbollah’s military arsenal, once a symbol of strength, has become an operational and political liability. With its withdrawal from key positions in southern Lebanon and increasing exposure across the country, the group’s offensive capabilities have been significantly diminished.