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 "Small Mistake" Could Ignite Full-Scale War

Inside the Fragile Border: UNIFIL Commander Reveals 9,000 Operations Per Month to Prevent War

The commander of UNIFIL warns the northern border is "extremely fragile," while criticizing Israeli strikes and defending the mission's past failures to contain Hezbollah's military expansion.

Major General Diodato Abagnara, the commander of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
Major General Diodato Abagnara, the commander of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) (Photo: Pasqual Gorriz, UN)

The North at a "Critical Time"

Major General Diodato Abagnara, the commander of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), has spoken directly to Israeli media for the first time, offering a stark assessment of the reality along the Blue Line one year after the ceasefire. His main message is one of extreme caution, emphasizing that the relative calm in the north rests on a precarious foundation.

"The situation is really, really fragile," Abagnara stated, later warning unequivocally that "a small mistake can lead to a major escalation."

The commander stressed that UNIFIL's core mission is to monitor and report ceasefire violations, and to assist the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in maintaining the area free of armed groups. He detailed the force's intense operational tempo, conducting anywhere from 6,000 to 9,000 operational activities per month, including joint and independent patrols, to provide "full coverage" of their area of operation.

Clash Over Violations and Rebuilding

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Abagnara did not shy away from criticizing Israel, accusing it of being a constant source of tension. He specifically stated that the Israeli strikes being carried out in Lebanon are a "constant and blatant violation of Resolution 1701," noting, "I must report this. The situation is not easy."

Conversely, when pressed about Hezbollah's rebuilding efforts south of the Litani River, the UNIFIL commander claimed he possesses "no evidence" that the terror group is attempting to reconstruct its military infrastructure. He instead praised the LAF's work in the area, stating they are doing "a very good job" in trying to prevent any Hezbollah presence.

Abagnara also confronted the issue of rising tensions between UNIFIL and Israeli forces, which included an incident where the IDF fired toward UNIFIL troops and another where UNIFIL forces downed an Israeli drone. He conveyed a firm message to Israel: "Any direct attack on UNIFIL forces is unacceptable... it is very important that our work be respected."

Defending the Pre-War Failure

The interview repeatedly returned to the failure of UNIFIL to prevent Hezbollah from building massive terror infrastructure in southern Lebanon, its area of operation, prior to the last war. Critics argue this buildup was a clear violation of Resolution 1701.

Abagnara defended the mission’s historical performance, arguing that past forces "did a very important job in preventing escalation and supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces," which, he noted, were present in significantly lower numbers than they are today. He conceded that it is "very easy to say if we could have done something differently," but maintained, "We tried to do our best."

When confronted with the fact that Hezbollah infrastructure was found close to UNIFIL bases, Abagnara placed the responsibility on the LAF, stating: "It is not our job to check if there is a certain private building that is suspicious, that is the job of the Lebanese Army." He dismissed the notion that UNIFIL turned a blind eye, instead focusing on the complexity of operating in a sovereign nation with extensive private property.

War is "Never the Solution"

In a final point of disagreement, Abagnara was asked whether the recent Israeli military operation was justified, given that it pushed Hezbollah further from the border.

The Major General delivered an absolute repudiation of the military option: "In my opinion, war is never a good solution, and it never has a good justification. Never." He insisted that the only viable path is the political one, emphasizing that "Peace and stability are the only solution in the long term, for everyone."

As for the future of the mission itself, whose mandate was renewed for one year in August, Abagnara remains noncommittal, focusing instead on creating the "best possible conditions for peace every day," rather than speculating on whether UNIFIL will leave Lebanon after nearly 50 years of presence.

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