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North on Edge

These are Hezbollah's Options After Assassination of Top Commander 

Can Hezbollah really afford to respond to Tabatabai's death, knowing it will bring a massive Israeli response? On the other hand, can it afford not to?

IDF strikes Hezbollah
IDF strikes Hezbollah (Photo: Shutterstock / mhlotfi)

In a bold escalation of the ongoing conflict, Israel confirmed the assassination of Haytham Ali Tabatabai, Hezbollah's de facto chief of staff and a long-sought senior military commander, in a targeted airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs yesterday. The strike, which marked the first Israeli attack on the Lebanese capital in months, has prompted the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to bolster defenses in the north, amid fears of imminent reprisals.

Tabatabai, also known as a key figure in Hezbollah's force build-up and armament efforts, was eliminated in the heart of Beirut's Dahiya neighborhood, a Hezbollah stronghold. Hezbollah swiftly confirmed his death, describing him as one of their most experienced commanders responsible for overseeing military operations and close ties to allied groups like Yemen's Houthis.

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The IDF hailed the operation as a significant blow, noting Tabatabai's role in coordinating with the Houthis and his status as Hezbollah's second-most senior figure after Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

In response to the killing, the IDF has ramped up its air-defense systems in northern Israel, significantly elevating alert levels to counter potential rocket barrages aimed at civilian areas.

This move, reported in today's Galatz (IDF Radio) bulletin, reflects heightened tensions in a conflict that has simmered since October 7, 2023, with sporadic exchanges of fire along the Israel-Lebanon border.

IDF intelligence officials have outlined several possible Hezbollah retaliation scenarios, drawing from ongoing assessments:

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