How Israel brought October 7th on itself

IDF operations in Gaza uncovered Hamas documents that paint a chilling picture of the group’s plans in early 2023, when Israel was rocked by protests over judicial reform. Published by the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center and analyzed by reserve Lt. Col. Yonatan Dahoah Halevy, the files reveal how Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mohammed Nasser, saw Israel’s political crisis as a rare chance to launch a major military attack, dubbed the “Ramadan Campaign.”

The offensive, likely planned for Ramadan (ending April 20, 2023) or October, drew inspiration from the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which also began during Ramadan.

The 2023 protests, started by disputes over judicial reform, saw massive rallies, calls for soldiers to refuse service, and heated public clashes. Hamas closely tracked these events, viewing them as evidence of Israel’s internal collapse. The documents show the group studied Israel’s social and political divides, zeroing in on tired leadership, an overworked military, and fading international support.

In a January 2023 speech in Doha, Haniyeh called Israel’s right wing government “the worst” and a “threat” to Palestinian interests, especially in Jerusalem and the Al Aqsa Mosque. He described the crisis as a “struggle tearing apart the state’s foundations,” citing former Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s call to fight the government and demands to arrest opposition leaders. Haniyeh predicted a “broad military clash,” noting that global support for Israel, even in the U.S., was slipping.

In an April 2023 talk, Mohammed Nasser told Sinwar that Israel’s divisions were a “massive landmine” ready to destroy it. He pointed to exhausted leadership and waning Western backing, claiming the “balance of power” favored Palestinians. Nasser even suggested the Biden administration fueled the protests to undermine Netanyahu, saying, “America acted inside Israel against him.”

Sinwar went further, calling the crisis a “civil war” that was unraveling Israel’s unity. He dismissed President Isaac Herzog’s mediation efforts as weak and warned that the situation was “more dangerous than the Yom Kippur War.” Sinwar said Hamas was gearing up for a huge attack, exploiting the IDF’s strain, operating with “51 battalions without rest” in Judea and Samaria. He highlighted the Al Aqsa Mosque as a critical rallying point, calling it a “winning card” to gain support from Palestinians, Arab states, and the Islamic world.

The documents outline the “Ramadan Campaign” as a plan to “explode the region,” topple regimes, and strike Israel, with Sinwar confident Hamas could “change the Middle East.” The Al Aqsa Mosque was central, with actions like Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Temple Mount visit framed as provocations to encourage conflict. Hamas believed this could mobilize a broad coalition against Israel, escalating the fight beyond past clashes like the May 2021 “Sword of Jerusalem.”

Yet, after all of this, it seems we have learned nothing: massive anti-government rallies under the guise of bringing the hostages back home, but really just trying to bring down the government all over again, even at the cost of October 7th 2.0.

We really are our own worst enemies.

Makor Rishon contributed to this article.