Concerning
Iran May Hold Fire on Direct Strikes Amid US Offensive, But Proxies Could Unleash Hell
Israel's estimate errs on caution, better safe than surprised in a multi-front powder keg. As Trump mulls "very strong action," Jerusalem watches: Proxies could tip the scales toward wider war.
Israeli officials and experts estimate that while Tehran might restrain from direct missile or drone barrages on Israel in retaliation for a potential American strike, fearing catastrophic escalation, its weakened but still potent proxy network, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, could ramp up independent or coordinated attacks to bleed the Jewish State without Iran taking the full blame. This "plausible deniability" tactic aligns with the regime's playbook, as proxies like the Houthis have continued sporadic strikes on Israel even as Iran's axis crumbles under internal protests and external pressure.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has placed IDF forces on high alert, bracing for "surprise scenarios" from the north (Hezbollah) and south (Houthis via Red Sea shipping disruptions or missile volleys). A senior Israeli defense source told local media: "Iran's direct hand may stay sheathed to avoid all-out war, but expect the tentaclesm Hezbollah's rockets or Houthi dronesm to probe our defenses." This view echoes post-2024-2025 conflict lessons, where weakened proxies like Hezbollah (decimated leadership) and Hamas (shattered in Gaza) held back during Israel's direct hits on Iran, but Houthis persisted with ballistic salvos, proving their autonomy in Iran's "axis of resistance."
U.S. involvement adds fuel: If President Donald Trump greenlights strikes on regime enforcers amid Iran's protest crackdown (over 2,400 dead, with some reports saying 12,000 and others saying as many as 20,000), Tehran has vowed retaliation against American bases, but Israeli intel assesses Iran would lean on proxies to hit Israel indirectly, avoiding a full NATO invocation while sowing chaos. Iraqi militias like Kataib Hezbollah have threatened U.S. targets, but could pivot to Israel if ordered, per past patterns. Houthis, undeterred by prior U.S.-Israeli bombs, "almost certainly" resume Red Sea assaults, per U.S. officials, potentially dragging in global shipping woes.
Yet, proxies' bite is blunted: Hezbollah, reeling from 2024 losses, may hesitate per reports; Houthis face logistical strains.