Expert Warns: If Iranian Regime Feels Its About to Collapse, It Will Strike Israel Without Hesitation

In a riveting interview on "Kikar FM" with host Eli Gotthelf, Iranian affairs expert Eliyahu Yosian provided a sobering analysis of the ongoing protests in Iran, warning that without external intervention, the demonstrations could end in a bloodbath and that a cornered regime might lash out at Israel.

Yosian addressed the dramatic unrest gripping Iran: hundreds reported dead, thousands protesting in Tehran and rural areas, amid ruthless crackdowns by the authorities. While the world watches with bated breath, hoping for the regime's downfall, Yosian tempered expectations, saying, "Totalitarian regimes don't fall solely from popular uprisings. Saddam Hussein didn't fall because of the Iraqi people. Gaddafi didn't fall because of the Libyans. Without external force, it doesn't happen."

Brutal Suppression, But No Existential Crisis

Yosian suggested that international reports of over 2,000 fatalities likely understate the reality. He likened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to the Nazi SS, describing it as a mechanism designed solely to preserve the regime at any cost. "For them, killing another thousand or ten thousand is a reasonable price to pay for survival," he said, emphasizing that the crackdown is not a sign of panic but standard procedure.

Leadership Vacuum in the Opposition

A key hurdle for the protesters, according to Yosian, is the absence of unified leadership.

The opposition is fragmented:

"There's no single figure capable of uniting everyone," Yosian explained. "Reza Pahlavi represents maybe 20-30% of the public. The rest don't see him as a natural leaderת but they have no alternative either."

Why Aren't Israel and the US Stepping In?

Yosian highlighted that Israel possesses the military and intelligence capabilities to deliver a crippling blow to the regime. The issue, he argued, lies not in ability but in policy."If Israel and the United States truly wanted to topple the regime, we'd hear entirely different rhetoric," he said. "There are no threats, no clear statements, no overt actions."

He attributed this hesitation to broader geopolitical factors, including Russia, China, and control over global oil markets. "Russia and China won't let the US dominate 60-70% of the world's oil supply," Yosian stated. "The fall of the Iranian regime would shift economic power to the West. China isn't willing to pay that price." In essence, the fate of Tehran's protesters is also being decided in Beijing and Moscow.

Yosian issued a stark warning about the risks to Israel if the regime feels its end is near. "If the Iranian regime senses this is the end, it will attack," he cautioned. "Missiles, proxies, Hezbollah, militias. That's exactly why Israel is hesitating."

However, he warned that this very hesitation could prove costly. "Without external intervention, the protests will end in a massacre. And the Iranian people's trust in Israel and the United States will vanish."

Yosian concluded without illusions:

The Iranian people alone cannot overthrow the regime.

Without a clear American decision, change won't occur.

Time is working against the protesters.

Every delay brings the protests closer to defeat, not victory.

"The real question isn't what the Iranians will do," he said, "but what the West is willing to sacrifice to topple this regime." The answer, at least for now, remains unclear.