Bracing for Impact: Israel Sharply Raises Probability of Imminent U.S. Strike on Iran
As diplomatic off-ramps collapse in the final hours, Israeli officials warn the "military option" is no longer a deterrent, it is an active plan.
The security establishment in Israel has significantly updated its assessments, indicating that the probability of a U.S. military strike against Iran has reached its highest level in years.
The shift follows a series of rapid developments over the last several hours that suggest the diplomatic window has not just closed, but slammed shut. According to diplomatic sources, a last-ditch "compromise proposal" submitted by Tehran to avoid a military confrontation was effectively rejected by Washington. The proposal reportedly failed to meet the stringent "red line" criteria set by the Trump administration regarding ballistic missiles and permanent nuclear enrichment freezes.
An Israeli official familiar with the coordination between the IDF and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated this that the military option has returned to the table "with immense force." He estimated that there is now a very high likelihood that a strike will be initiated in the immediate term.
Another source familiar with the internal dynamics in Washington echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the U.S. has reached a point of no return.
"It is difficult for us to see the Americans backing down at this stage," the source explained. The assessment suggests that the massive deployment of U.S. naval and aerial assets, including the evacuation of the 5th Fleet from Bahrain yesterday, has reached an operational "point of entry" where a retreat without a major strategic achievement would be viewed as a catastrophic display of weakness.
The stakes have shifted for these reasons:
1. Washington views the recent Iranian offers as "stalling tactics" rather than genuine concessions.
2. With multiple carrier strike groups in position and the Geneva summit on the brink of collapse, the logistical cost of de-escalation is now weighed against the necessity of a strike.
3. Israeli officials are reportedly in "constant, minute-by-minute" contact with their American counterparts, preparing for the regional fallout of a potential opening salvo.