More questions than answers
Israel Prepares New Gaza Scenarios After Trump-Netanyahu Summit Leaves Key Questions Unanswered
IDF maintains control over 54% of Gaza as security establishment weighs three potential paths forward, including first "terror-free city" in Rafah.
Israel's security establishment is preparing contingency plans for Gaza following a summit between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump that produced more questions than answers about the strip's future, as reported by Walla.
Despite optimism surrounding the meeting, the Israeli Defense Forces have received no new directives on how operations in Gaza will change. The military continues to clear territory under Israeli operational control between the "Yellow Line" and the official border, a 64-kilometer stretch representing 54% of the Gaza Strip.
Hamas Refuses Disarmament, But Who Will Enforce It?
President Trump addressed Israel's most pressing question: Will Hamas be disarmed? But Walla expplained that while Trump issued threats and warnings to the group, the critical question remain, who will actually do it? Currently, Hamas is fortifying its position and working to rebuild its military capabilities.
Unlike the American president's statements, no international force is known to be willing to forcibly disarm Hamas in Gaza, except the IDF. Security officials therefore estimate several possible scenarios:
Scenario One: Status Quo.
The IDF holds its current territory, Gaza reconstruction is delayed, and Hamas retains its weapons in less than half the strip until further notice.
Scenario Two: Modified Status Quo.
Most Palestinian territory remains under Israeli control while establishing the first "terror-free city" on Rafah's grounds, in other words, moving to a "lean Phase Two."
Scenario Three: Active Campaign.
Israel and the United States advance the Rafah terror-free city while the IDF fights Hamas and maneuvers deeper into certain areas to forcibly disarm the organization.
The Situation on the Ground
IDF officials clarify that unless the political echelon directs otherwise, forces in the Gaza Strip will continue defending 54% of its territory, strengthening the "Yellow Line," fortifying outposts, and upgrading infrastructure. Simultaneously, forces will continue clearing areas of terror infrastructure and eliminating militants.
Regarding Rafah, the IDF confirms engineering work is underway around the cleared area to create zones where structures for Palestinians can be built. A military source emphasized the work is being conducted solely by the IDF. No decision has been made to bring in civilian contractors with American or other foreign funding to accelerate the process. The issue is expected to be resolved in coming days between Trump and Netanyahu.
Wide Room for Maneuver
Following the Trump-Netanyahu summit, IDF sources indicated that while Trump's public interview didn't contain many definitive statements, the impression emerged that Israel has significant room to maneuver regarding Gaza. Concurrently, Southern Command is planning operations to disarm Hamas, ready to execute quickly if the political echelon issues such an order.
According to IDF assessments, receiving authorization to fight Hamas anew would include recapturing additional territories from which the military has already withdrawn, in the very first stage of renewed combat. It remains unclear whether political pressure on Hamas will help return the body of the last missing soldier-hostage, Ran Gvili of the elite Duvdevan unit.
A security official summarized: "The likelihood of returning to combat against Hamas increases if they don't disarm."
Walla contributed to this article.