Lebanon's Insanely Difficult Choice

The United States has asked Lebanon to hand over the GBU-39B missile that did not explode during the strike that killed Haitham Tabatabai in the Harat Hreik neighborhood in the Dahieh suburbs. The missile was found at the scene after the Israeli Air Force operation, and the American request has caused a lot of concern in Beirut, as reported by Maariv.

The GBU-39B is a smart bomb weighing only 110 kg, equipped with GPS and inertial navigation systems, capable of striking within a one-meter radius of its target. It is of the most precise and advanced munitions used by Western militaries, and as such, the U.S. is concerned that its sensitive technology could be exposed.

Worse than that though, Washington fears the unexploded missile could be transferred to Hezbollah and from there to Iran allowing analysis of its guidance and fuel systems, or to Russia, which is engaged in a technological struggle against the U.S. across multiple arenas. Exposure of components such as the advanced AFX-757 explosive or activation mechanisms could enable the development of counter-capabilities and is therefore seen as a strategic threat.

The Lebanese government now finds itself caught between two sides: on one hand, heavy American pressure to return the munition as soon as possible; on the other, expected opposition from Hezbollah and its allies, who view handing over the missile as a blow to Lebanese sovereignty and may use the affair to claim U.S. and Israeli interference in Lebanon.

According to political sources in Beirut, the issue could escalate into a crisis, though it may also fade amid a series of upcoming events, including the Pope’s visit which concludes tomorrow, maritime border discussions with Cyprus, and rising tensions with Israel toward the end of the year.