The Broken Promise: How 20,000 Rockets Proved the "Total Destruction" of Iran a Myth

The political landscape in Israel is shifting as the gap between government rhetoric and the reality on the ground becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long leaned on declarations of "historic victory," most notably following the "Am K'Lavi" operation in June 2024. At that time, Netanyahu told the nation that the Iranian nuclear project had been "sent to the drain" and the threat of 20,000 ballistic missiles had been removed. However, less than a year later, the Prime Minister and President Trump found themselves launching another operation to eliminate the exact same threats they had previously claimed were destroyed.

This pattern has led to what analysts call the "Boy Who Cried Wolf" syndrome. While there have been undeniable military achievements, such as the elimination of nuclear scientists and the degradation of missile stockpiles, the constant overstatement of "total victory" has bred deep skepticism among the public. In the north, despite the sophisticated pager attacks and the elimination of Hezbollah’s top tier, the group continues to launch rockets daily, paralyzing entire regions. For residents told they could "return home safely" in late 2024, the current reality of sirens and shelters makes the government's boasts feel hollow.

As elections loom, the Likud party is shifting its focus toward a campaign centered on the "Deep State" and a war against the judicial system. With the military successes failing to translate into a lasting sense of security, the coalition is looking for a unifying theme to ignite its base. There was a hope within the government that the High Court would disqualify Itamar Ben Gvir, allowing the coalition to build a "martyred" campaign around him. However, the judges have opted not to grant this political gift, instead pushing for mediation.

The risk for Netanyahu is that the Israeli public is increasingly exhausted by internal wars. Polls suggest a strong desire for unity and stability after three years of bloodshed and economic strain. The campaign against "judges, advisors, and clerks" may energize the core supporters, but it risks alienating the center of the country that is tired of "Israelis against Israelis." Netanyahu is betting that he can once again dominate the narrative, but with the ruins of the north still smoldering and Hamas rebuilding in Gaza, the promise of "total victory" is a harder sell than ever before.