Likud preparing alternative candidate if Netanyahu barred

As Israel's political system braces for elections that may not produce a clear winner, senior figures in Likud are troubled by a dramatic scenario that could upend the entire game. According to a report by commentator Matti Tuchfeld in Maariv, the party's central concern is not only the ballot-box results themselves, but the possibility that even if Binyamin Netanyahu succeeds in holding a large right-wing bloc, the Knesset and High Court could pass a law preventing the president from assigning him the mandate to form a government due to the pending indictment against him, what is known in public discourse as "the indictment law."

According to assessments circulating in Likud circles, as long as the threat remains theoretical or distant, the Likud faction is expected to remain united and stand as a fortress behind the prime minister. MKs and ministers will continue to declare their absolute loyalty publicly, even if behind the scenes there are figures already thinking about and examining the day after.

However, the picture could change drastically if the law in question becomes a fait accompli and passes all legal and parliamentary hurdles. In a situation where the law indeed prevents the president from assigning the mandate to Netanyahu, certain elements within Likud may shift direction and argue that the problem has become Netanyahu's personal issue rather than the party's. The argument that will be heard behind the scenes will be blunt: if from a dry legal standpoint Netanyahu cannot receive the mandate, why drag the entire party into repeat elections or sink it in the opposition, instead of finding an alternative candidate from within Likud's ranks?

In other words, only after such legislation is approved and enters into force is a real and open succession battle expected to break out within the ruling party. Until then, the prevailing assessment in the political system is that Likud will remain united around its leader until the moment of truth.