165,635 votes needed to cross threshold in Israel election

Less than a week before Israelis go to the polls, the Taub Center released Wednesday the precise vote count parties will need to enter the Knesset --- and the number has dropped from earlier estimates. Based on final figures from the Central Elections Committee showing 7,331,981 eligible voters, the threshold calculation has been revised downward, meaning parties need fewer votes than previously thought to cross the 3.25% barrier.

The updated analysis comes from Prof. Alex Weinreb, head of demography and research director at the Taub Center. The revision follows an August forecast that relied on Central Bureau of Statistics data estimating 7.56 million eligible voters. With the final count coming in 229,000 lower, the vote threshold drops accordingly.

Assuming a 70% turnout, matching the 2022 election, a party will need 165,635 votes to secure Knesset seats, according to Taub's calculations. That figure assumes 99.3% of ballots cast will be valid, though the actual threshold will be determined only after votes are counted, since any rise in turnout immediately raises the bar.

The full forecast presents multiple scenarios depending on election-day participation. At a low 60% turnout, a party would need just 141,973 votes to cross the threshold, while 65% turnout would require 153,804 votes. If turnout climbs to 75%, the threshold rises to 177,466 votes, and in a scenario of exceptionally high 80% participation, parties would need 189,297 votes to enter the Knesset.