Who will lead Israel's next government? While Israeli polls continue to show a tight race between the leading candidates, data from the international prediction market Polymarket points to a different picture, with a significant gap between two of the most prominent names in Israeli politics.
According to data checked Wednesday, in a market where cumulative trading has reached approximately $46 million, one candidate has opened a substantial lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But a comparison with public opinion polls reveals that the picture is more complex.
The candidate leading the prediction market is Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the Yashar party, with an implied probability of approximately 48.6% of becoming the next prime minister. Netanyahu stands in second place with approximately 31%, followed by Naftali Bennett with approximately 16%. Avigdor Lieberman trails far behind, with only about 2%.
The gap between Eisenkot and Netanyahu is nearly 18 percentage points, but it is important to emphasize that the data reflects the assessments of prediction market participants, not the level of support for the candidates among the Israeli public.
A Kan News poll published on September 28 showed a different picture. Thirty-nine percent of respondents preferred Netanyahu for prime minister, compared to 38% who preferred Eisenkot.
However, in that same poll, Eisenkot's party ranked first with 23 Knesset seats, compared to 21 seats for Likud. The two main blocs each received 52 seats.
The difference between the results also stems from the method of measurement. While public opinion polls examine the positions of respondents, Polymarket is based on trading in contracts related to future outcomes. Therefore, the probability that participants assign to a candidate is not equivalent to the level of public support for him.
