Americans vote next Tuesday, November 3, in midterm elections that could shift the balance of power in Washington and complicate President Donald Trump's ability to carry out his foreign policy. According to an analysis published by Reuters, Democrats are favored to retake the House of Representatives, with an outside chance of winning the Senate as well.
A Democratic victory would not allow them to replace the president or run foreign policy on their own, but it would give them significant tools to constrain his moves: control over budgets, legislation, oversight hearings, and votes on the floor. For Israel, one of the central concerns is that the political shift could bring growing pressure on American military aid.
1. Blocking the war with Iran
Democrats may use their power in Congress to limit the ongoing American campaign against Iran. According to Reuters, Trump launched the war on February 28 without seeking prior congressional approval. Since then, Democratic lawmakers, joined by a handful of Republicans, have tried to advance resolutions requiring the president to halt military action unless he receives authorization from Congress.
One such resolution passed with support from several Republicans, but the Trump administration has not complied. If Democrats gain control of one or both chambers, they could apply additional pressure through budget restrictions and demand that senior officials testify publicly about war plans.
For Israel, this is a development that could affect Washington's freedom of action vis-à-vis Tehran and the scope of American involvement in the campaign. That said, a Democratic victory would not by itself end the war, and the extent of any constraints would depend on legislation and the balance of forces in Congress.
2. Restoring aid to Ukraine and escalating the confrontation with Russia
Democrats are expected to push for renewed American military and economic aid to Ukraine, after Trump sharply reduced direct assistance to Kyiv. According to Reuters, there is broad bipartisan support for the issue, against the backdrop of Russia's war in Ukraine.
The dispute intensified after Trump lifted restrictions on Russian diesel exports and granted exemptions from sanctions on Russian energy, just weeks after signing legislation on the matter.
If Democrats take both houses of Congress, they will control which bills come to the floor and when. That would allow them to advance a new Ukraine aid package, which analysts believe could win the two-thirds majority in each chamber needed to override a presidential veto.
In addition, Democrats may advance legislation to block the relief Trump is granting Russia. Gregory Meeks, who could chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee if his party wins, has already introduced a bipartisan bill aimed at stopping the president's plan to return Russian diesel to world markets.
3. Cutting military aid to Israel — or ending it
The most sensitive issue from Jerusalem's perspective is the possibility that Democrats will move to limit or halt security assistance to Israel. According to Reuters, support for Israel within the Democratic Party has dropped sharply amid the war in Gaza, putting continued backing at risk if they gain control of Capitol Hill.
American military aid to Israel totaled $3.8 billion in the last fiscal year, more than any other country receives. But among Democrats, there is growing willingness to make aid subject to restrictions and conditions.
Last summer, nearly half of House Democrats voted in favor of cutting aid to Israel. Even members who opposed the broader measure, including Meeks, supported restrictions on the supply of certain weapons, such as heavy bombs.
A Democratic victory in both chambers could give supporters of such moves control over the legislative agenda and make it easier to advance proposals limiting arms shipments or changing the terms of aid. That said, ending aid is not an automatic result of an election victory, and would require additional political and legislative steps.
4. Fighting Trump's defense budget and restoring foreign aid
Democrats are also expected to oppose a major increase in the American defense budget and to try to restore foreign aid that the Trump administration has frozen or canceled.
Trump requested a 67% increase in the defense budget this year, to an unprecedented $1.5 trillion. Democrats blocked the move in the Senate, arguing in part that the president is acting without adequate consultation with Congress on the Iran war while cutting social programs.
At the same time, the administration has delayed or canceled billions of dollars in foreign aid that Congress had already approved. Democrats are furious over the cuts and want to restore the funding.
For Israel, this shift could have a dual meaning: on one hand, an effort to restore American aid budgets to countries and organizations around the world; on the other, a fight over Washington's defense priorities that could make it harder to maintain the level of aid to Israel and the supply of military equipment.
