The 31st of March: Trump’s Secret Deadline for Ending the War in Iran

Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman has provided a sharp analysis of the geopolitical forces driving the current war, suggesting that President Trump’s strategy is heavily influenced by a "complex triangle" of oil prices, the upcoming US midterm elections, and the critical Beijing summit on March 31st. Writing in a specialized column, Lieberman argues that the United States views the Iranian and Venezuelan regimes as central targets due to their control over 27 percent of the world’s oil reserves. As Trump prepares to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he seeks to arrive with the strongest possible hand, which includes the total neutralization of Iran as a regional power. However, Lieberman warns that Israel cannot rely solely on American interests and must set its own uncompromising goals: the total collapse of the Ayatollah regime and the final liquidation of Hezbollah.

The China Connection

Lieberman posits that the only true consensus in the American political establishment is the long-term competition with China. To win this struggle, the US must dismantle the Russian-Chinese axis, of which Iran and Venezuela are key members. This is why Trump is reportedly aiming to conclude the "Epic Fury" operation by the end of March, coinciding with his summit in Beijing. The rise in gas and oil prices since the start of the war has put immense pressure on global markets, with the S&P and Nasdaq showing negative returns for the year. Ending the war quickly while controlling the energy resources of the defeated nations would give Trump a massive economic and diplomatic victory.

Israel’s Existential Mission

Despite the American timeline, Lieberman asserts that Israel has a separate, existential mission. He points out that the conditions for regime change in Iran have finally ripened, not because of the nuclear issue, but due to the daily suffering of Iranian citizens facing inflation and lack of basic services. "Regimes do not fall on their own," Lieberman wrote, "someone must plan and synthesize it, this is focused and systematic work." He argues that if Israel does not use this moment to achieve its goals, the result will be a return to the status quo after two and a half years of blood and thousands of lives lost, with all fronts, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, remaining open and dangerous.

A Mistake for Generations

The former Defense Minister concluded with a haunting warning about the dangers of leaving the job half-finished. He recalled his previous warnings that a "wounded animal" like Iran is the most dangerous, and that any survival of the regime will simply lead to a future war of vengeance against Israel. Lieberman insists that Israel must do "90 percent of the work" in Lebanon itself, leaving only the final mop-up for the Lebanese army. Failure to topple the Ayatollahs and destroy Hezbollah now would be a "strategic mistake and a crying for generations." For Lieberman, the choice is simple: total victory today, or an even more devastating war tomorrow.