The Day After: What the Global Powers Want from a Post-Ayatollah Iran

As the inevitable collapse draws near, every major capital is preparing its dossier for the day after.

For the United States, the primary interest is stability and non-proliferation.

Washington wants a friendly government in Tehran that abandons its nuclear ambitions and ceases the harassment of maritime traffic in the Gulf.

The Americans will push for a democratic model that aligns with Western values, allowing US companies to upgrade Iran’s aging oil infrastructure and aviation fleet.

For Israel, the priority is absolute security. Jerusalem will demand the immediate dismantling of the nuclear program and the cessation of all ballistic missile development.

Beyond security, Israel sees a natural partner in the Iranian people.

The historical friendship between the two non-Arab nations in the region is expected to be rekindled, with Israel offering water technology and agricultural expertise to help rehabilitate Iran’s drying plateau in exchange for energy and diplomatic recognition.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE view the collapse through the lens of religious and regional rivalry.

Their primary interest is the end of the Shia revolutionary ideology that has threatened their monarchies.

They will likely offer massive financial aid packages to the new Iranian government to ensure it tilts toward the Gulf Cooperation Council and away from radicalism.

However, they will also be wary of a too-powerful Iran re-emerging as a dominant competitor.

The European Union will be focused on energy security, seeing a free Iran as the ultimate alternative to Russian gas, while also hoping that a stable economy will end the waves of migration heading toward Europe.

China views the potential fall of the Islamic Republic with deep pragmatism and calculated caution. As the largest purchaser of Iranian oil and a signatory to a twenty-five-year strategic partnership, Beijing’s primary goal is to ensure that a change in government does not disrupt its energy security or the critical trade routes of the Belt and Road Initiative. While China has supported the current regime as a counterweight to American influence, it will likely pivot quickly to court a new government with offers of rapid infrastructure development.

The nightmare scenario for Beijing is a post-revolutionary Iran that becomes a purely American client state, potentially cutting off China’s access to the Persian Gulf and encircling it with US allies.

For Moscow, the collapse of the Ayatollahs represents a catastrophic strategic loss that could leave it isolated on the global stage.

Iran has been Russia’s essential partner in sanctions evasion and a key supplier of military drones for its war efforts in Europe. A pro-Western government in Tehran would not only sever this military supply line but could also unleash Iran’s massive natural gas reserves onto the European market, effectively ending Russia’s energy leverage over the continent.

Consequently, the Kremlin may work in the shadows to maintain instability, desperate to prevent the emergence of a stable competitor that aligns itself with NATO.