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Israel At War

Hezbollah and Hamas Issue Retaliation Threats, Current Calm in the Region

On the day following the elimination of al-Arouri, both Hamas and Hezbollah issued retaliation threats. However, they haven't taken any action, either due to a lack of capability or a lack of willingness. Meanwhile, no change in the guidelines from the Home Front Command on the northern border and the rest of the country.

Hezbollah Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah.

"Israel at War: A day after the elimination of Saleh al-Arouri, the head of Hamas's military wing in Judea and Samaria and the deputy head of Hamas's political bureau, there is currently no response from the terrorist organizations.

Hamas, of course, is threatening retaliation against Israel for the targeted killing but faces difficulties due to the significant impact of the IDF's ground operation on its rocket-launching capabilities. Hamas has struggled to carry out launches in the past two weeks. Additionally, the elimination of Hamas leaders in Lebanon has left the organization without leaders to organize and coordinate anti-Israel actions. It seems that similar to the situation in the northern Gaza Strip, in Lebanon, when the leadership is eliminated, the clashes turn into sporadic attacks by unorganized cells, which may exact a toll but cannot pose a significant threat to Israel."

The expectation from Israel is for the launching of long-range rockets by Hamas operatives, who in the past also launched rockets onto Haifa and the Krayot areas, but did not cause significant damage.

Hezbollah's indecision

The second player in the arena - Hezbollah, has also promised to take revenge, following Nasrallah's threat in the summer, that he would respond to an Israeli assassination in Lebanese territory. However, the last three months have taught that Hezbollah is not interested in escalating the conflict beyond the conflict line. Most of his operations are close to the fence, to send a message of help to Hamas and to tie up large IDF forces in the north, but not beyond that.

Unlike Hamas, Hezbollah can fire barrages of hundreds of rockets at almost any point in Israel, but at this stage, it is probably afraid to escalate the situation further and start an all-out war against Israel, because of its own considerations.

In Israel, preparations are being made for a more significant action on the part of Hezbollah, but it is not impossible that it will be satisfied with an "Honorary Artillery Volley" to get out of the obligation of revenge.

Let's recall that at the end of security consultations since Aaruri's assassination until tonight, it was decided to continue the security routine in all areas of the country. The conflict line is still in a state of war, and in the rest of the country, the emergency routine continues.
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