Why Israel Would Be Insane to Fall for Hamas' Hudna Trap

In the shadowy world of Middle East diplomacy, few concepts carry as much historical baggage and strategic sleight-of-hand as the "hudna," an Islamic truce that promises peace but often delivers little more than a breathing room for the weaker party to sharpen its blades.

Recent whispers from Saudi channels suggest Hamas is floating a "major deal": a 10-year hudna, a pause in hostilities, and a handover of Gaza governance in exchange for lifting Israel's blockade. On the surface, it sounds like a lifeline amid the rubble of Gaza's ongoing humanitarian catastrophe. But scratch deeper, and it's clear this isn't a olive branch, it's a Trojan horse.

For Israel to entertain such a proposal would not just be naive; it would be downright insane, inviting a repeat of history's bloodiest deceptions.The hudna's roots trace back to the 7th century, when the Prophet Muhammad struck the Treaty of Hudaybiyyah with the Quraysh tribe, a 10-year armistice that lasted barely two years before being broken when Muslim forces grew strong enough to conquer Mecca.

In modern terms, it's no permanent peace accord like the Camp David Agreements; it's a tactical timeout, invoked when one side, often the militarily outmatched, needs time to regroup, rearm, and strike again. Hamas, battered after over a year of war that has claimed more than 53,000 lives in Gaza, knows this playbook well. Their charter explicitly rejects Israel's right to exist, framing the conflict as an eternal jihad until "liberation."

A hudna, then, isn't about coexistence; it's about survival and resurgence.Hamas has dangled this carrot before. In 2003, amid the Second Intifada, they proposed a 10-year truce in exchange for Israel's full withdrawal from Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, a deal that went nowhere but revealed their long-game thinking.

Leaders like Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal reiterated similar offers between 2006 and 2014, floating "indefinite" hudnas conditioned on 1967 borders.

Yet, as one Hamas official admitted in 2012, even a long-term truce wouldn't mean honoring a treaty; it would merely postpone the ultimate goal of dismantling the "Zionist entity."

Critics, including Israeli think tanks and U.S. analysts, have long called this the "hudna scam" - a ploy to exploit Western hopes for peace while stockpiling rockets and tunnels.

Why would it be insane for Israel?

First, lifting the blockade, as demanded in this purported Saudi-brokered deal, would flood Gaza with unchecked resources, including weapons. Hamas has smuggled Iranian missiles through tunnels before; imagine the arsenal they'd amass over a decade of "peace."

Second, governance handover sounds noble, but without genuine demilitarization (a Quartet demand since 2006), it merely shifts power to Hamas' civilian facade while their military wing rebuilds.

Third, history screams caution: Past ceasefires, like the 2003 hudna, crumbled into violence, eroding trust and costing lives.

Accepting this would embolden jihadist ideology, signaling weakness to Hezbollah and Iran, who view hudnas as stepping stones to victory.In a region where peace is fragile and enemies eternal, Israel can't afford to bet on Hamas' good faith. This hudna isn't a bridge to coexistence, it's a mirage leading straight back to war. Sanity demands rejection; anything less invites catastrophe.

But with the U.S. applying extreme pressure, Israel may accept it, to our peril.