How to Stop October 7 From Happening Again

In the annals of Israeli history, few events evoke as much national soul-searching as the Yom Kippur War of 1973, a brutal surprise assault that shattered the illusion of invincibility following the Six-Day War triumph. Fast-forward 50 years, and the devastating Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, has reignited those painful memories, drawing eerie comparisons in intelligence oversights, strategic hubris, and the human cost of unpreparedness.

As Eli Zeira, the former head of Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman) during the 1973 war, warned in a recent book before his passing on November 21 at age 97: "Whoever sought to surprise the enemy always succeeded." His words, echoed in military historian Aviram Barkai's 2025 publication And the Lightning Struck Twice: October 1973 - October 2023, serve as a stark reminder that history's lessons are often ignored at great peril.

The 1973 Yom Kippur War: A Nation Caught Off Guard

On October 6, 1973, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar, Egypt and Syria launched a coordinated invasion of Israel. Egyptian forces crossed the Suez Canal into the Sinai Peninsula, while Syrian troops advanced into the Golan Heights. Despite mounting evidence of troop buildups and unusual military maneuvers, Israeli intelligence dismissed the threat. Zeira infamously assessed the probability of war as "low," clinging to a flawed "conception" that Arab states were deterred by Israel's military superiority and would not risk a full-scale conflict without air superiority.

The Agranat Commission, Israel's postwar inquiry, revealed a cascade of failures: overreliance on assumptions, ignored warnings from sources like Egyptian spy Ashraf Marwan (whom Zeira later accused of being a double agent), and a bureaucratic silo where critical intelligence wasn't escalated. The result? Initial chaos, with Israeli forces suffering heavy casualties, over 2,600 dead and thousands wounded, before a counteroffensive turned the tide.

The war reshaped Israeli society, leading to political upheaval, including Prime Minister Golda Meir's resignation, and a reevaluation of defense doctrines.

October 7, 2023: History's Grim Replay

Half a century later, on October 7, 2023, coinciding with the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah, Hamas terrorists breached Israel's heavily fortified Gaza border in a meticulously planned assault. Paragliders, bulldozers, and motorbikes overwhelmed defenses, leading to the massacre of over 1,200 civilians and soldiers, the abduction of 250 hostages, and widespread destruction in southern communities. Like 1973, the attack exploited a moment of national vulnerability, catching border guards and intelligence agencies by surprise despite prior indicators.

Investigations, including preliminary findings from Israeli inquiries, point to a modern echo of the "conception" failure: a belief that Hamas was contained and deterred by economic incentives and Israel's Iron Dome system. Warnings from field observers about unusual Hamas training exercises and border activities were reportedly downplayed or siloed within the IDF and Shin Bet.

Political distractions, including domestic protests over judicial reforms, further diverted attention, mirroring the complacency of 1973.

Striking Parallels: Missed Warnings and Systemic Flaws

The similarities between these two cataclysmic events are uncanny, as highlighted in Barkai's book, which positions Zeira as a "protagonist" and draws direct lines between the eras. Both attacks succeeded through deception and surprise: In 1973, Egypt masked preparations as routine exercises; in 2023, Hamas used similar tactics, including simulated drills that Israeli intelligence interpreted as bluffs.

Intelligence hubris played a central role. Zeira's dismissal of threats in 1973 stemmed from an overconfidence in Israel's qualitative edge, a mindset replicated in 2023, where leaders underestimated Hamas's capabilities despite intercepted plans like the "Jericho Wall" blueprint.

As Zeira told Barkai, "Every time an army wanted to achieve surprise, it succeeded... Assume that you will not receive a warning."

Politically, both wars exposed leadership blind spots. In 1973, Meir's government ignored diplomatic signals; in 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's administration has faced criticism for prioritizing internal divisions over border security.

The human toll amplified the trauma: Veterans of 1973, like those interviewed in recent analyses, express déjà vu, hoping the lessons of resilience and inquiry will prevent a third "lightning strike."

Lessons Unlearned: A Call for Fundamental Change

Barkai's work, praised by journalists like Haggai Segal as essential reading, argues that without a paradigm shift, moving beyond warning-dependent strategies, Israel risks repetition.

Zeira was infamously known for missing the signs that could have stopped the Yom Kippur war. But, his posthumous vindication lies in this: The failures weren't just about missed dots but a systemic refusal to connect them amid overconfidence.

As ongoing probes into October 7 unfold, including potential commissions akin to Agranat, the parallels serve as a cautionary tale not just for Israel but for any nation facing asymmetric threats.In an era of evolving warfare, from drones to disinformation, the story of these two surprises urges eternal vigilance.

As one 1973 veteran reflected, "We hoped the bitter lessons had been learned," yet history whispers otherwise.