The Trump Factor: How American Threats are Changing the Rules for Iranian Police

As the wave of unrest in Iran enters its eleventh day, the nation finds itself in a state of high tension but structural stalemate. While anger is boiling over in dozens of locations across the country, the movement faces a significant hurdle, a lack of central leadership and a relatively small number of participants compared to the total population of 90 million. Currently, thousands of people are taking to the streets in major hubs like Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad, but these numbers have not yet swelled into the millions required to topple a regime. Experts suggest the government is using a sophisticated and measured strategy of suppression to prevent the protests from reaching a critical mass.

The primary catalyst for this uprising is a suffocating economic crisis. With inflation hovering around 50% and the Iranian rial hitting a historic low of 1.48 million to the dollar, the average monthly salary of $100 to $150 is no longer enough for basic survival. A resident of Isfahan told reporters that the situation is catastrophic, explaining that even a high salary barely covers rent and basic food. "The Iranian people suffer from absolute poverty," he said, adding that any unexpected expense, such as a medical bill, can destroy a family's livelihood. In a symbolic act of defiance in Abadan, protesters were seen looting Basij-affiliated stores and throwing bags of subsidized rice into the street, choosing to celebrate their anger rather than eat the state-provided food.

Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, notes that while the geographic spread of the protests is an immense challenge for the state, the regime is avoiding the kind of hyper-violent crackdown seen in 2022. "The government is trying its best to stop it, but not with violent suppression," Citrinowicz explained. Instead, the authorities are offering "economic candies" like food stamps and using "soft" policing. This caution is partly a lesson learned from the past, as officials know that creating more martyrs only fuels the fire. Additionally, experts believe the threat of intervention from the Trump administration has changed the rules of the game, making the regime wary of a heavy-handed military response that could trigger international retaliation.

Dr. Tamar Eilam Gindin from Haifa University points out that the Basij forces, often seen as ideological thugs, also function as an economic lifeline for many who join just to access subsidized goods. This creates a complex social dynamic where the state uses both the carrot and the stick to maintain order. While the current protests have crossed class lines to include students, the youth, and bazaar merchants, they have yet to break through the "glass ceiling" needed for a total revolution. For now, the regime remains stable, but the long term duration of the unrest will test whether the state can continue to contain the cumulative pressure of a starving and angry public.