Regime in Shambles: Parliament Speaker Resigns as IRGC Tightens Its Grip

The Iranian regime is currently embroiled in an internal crisis described by observers as the most severe in years, following the dramatic resignation of Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf from his diplomatic duties. Ghalibaf, who had been the primary figure leading quiet negotiations with the United States and managing talks in Pakistan, officially withdrew from these roles on Thursday. This decision marks a significant escalation in the ongoing power struggle between the civilian government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as high ranking generals like Ahmad Vahidi and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian have increasingly obstructed decision-making processes. Ghalibaf reportedly concluded that he no longer possessed the necessary autonomy to conduct sensitive negotiations due to this military encroachment.

The catalyst for this collapse was the failure of a Qatari-mediated initiative, often referred to as the 20 for 20 deal. The proposal sought a compromise where the United States would allow the free passage of 20 Iranian merchant ships in exchange for Iran guaranteeing the safe transit of 20 vessels from Arab Gulf states through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the potential for regional de-escalation, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, previously a close ally of Ghalibaf, chose to align with the IRGC’s hardline stance, effectively torpedoing the initiative. This rejection has left the regime in a state of total paralysis, with no single authority capable of making binding decisions. While the regime's leadership, including Ghalibaf himself in later statements, publicly claims unity under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the reality on the ground points to a deeply divided and dysfunctional government struggling to maintain control amidst the ongoing war.