Israel’s Blistering Strikes Push Iran’s Supreme Leader to the Brink

Israel’s devastating airstrikes on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and killing several top military commanders, have plunged the Islamic Republic into a crisis, exposing critical weaknesses in the intelligence and security systems that have sustained Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rule since 1989. The attacks, part of an escalating conflict ignited on Oct. 7, 2023, have left Iran’s military battered and its regional influence diminished, with Khamenei facing a stark set of choices, none of them promising, per a recent WSJ article.

On Friday, Israel unleashed waves of airstrikes across Iran, killing key figures including Major Gen. Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the armed forces chief of staff, and the head of Iran’s ballistic missile program. The strikes, which also targeted nuclear facilities, were executed partly with explosive drones and guided weapons smuggled into Iran by Israel’s Mossad, according to an Israeli security official. Iran’s retaliatory barrage of ballistic missiles on Tel Aviv was largely intercepted or caused minimal damage, showing its weakened military capacity.

A Regional Power Weakened

The strikes mark the most severe blow in a confrontation that began with Hamas’ attack on Israel, an Iranian ally, on Oct. 7, 2023. Since then, Israel has systematically targeted Iran’s network, killing nearly a dozen senior IRGC commanders and crippling allies like Hamas and Hezbollah, while Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December 2024. “If he is honest with himself, he will admit that he has lost,” said Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. “The ship that he stewarded has run aground.”

The Wall Street Journal explained that Khamenei, 86, has long orchestrated Iran’s regional dominance through the IRGC and allied Shiite militias, while maintaining domestic control via a pervasive surveillance state. Yet, Israel’s ability to penetrate Iran’s intelligence and target its elite, evidenced by past killings like that of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020 and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran guesthouse, has left Khamenei personally vulnerable. “Most of them were targeted in their homes,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, noting an “incomprehensible” level of overconfidence among Iran’s leadership.

Strategic Miscalculations

Iran’s military, long flaunted but untested until recently, underestimated Israel’s resolve, Azizi said. The U.S. withdrawal of diplomatic personnel from Iraq earlier this week signaled heightened tensions, yet Iran’s top officials remained exposed. The strikes have eroded Khamenei’s image as a guarantor of national security, a cornerstone of his rule since surviving an eight-year war with Iraq. While Iran faced fewer attacks from groups like Islamic State compared to neighbors, Israel’s relentless campaign has exposed the fragility of the IRGC and intelligence services established post-1979 to protect the theocratic state.

Khamenei now faces a dilemma. Further retaliation risks being ineffective, inviting harsher Israeli responses. Targeting U.S. interests could provoke American reprisals, a scenario he has historically avoided. A nuclear deal with the U.S., set for a sixth round of talks on June 15, would curb Iran’s enrichment program but alienate hard-line supporters, a risky move for a leader increasingly reliant on their loyalty. “It’s a choice between continuing this war, engaging full-force, or surrender,” Azizi said, noting Israel’s likely persistence regardless of Iran’s response.

Domestic and Regional Fallout

Despite its external setbacks, Iran’s regime remains equipped to suppress domestic unrest, Ostovar warned. “Even though Iran has lost its ability to wage a serious war against its adversaries, it can still wage a serious war against its citizens,” he said, signaling a dangerous time for Iranians. Regionally, Iran’s deterrence, its network of militias, has been decimated, and its two missile attacks on Israel over the past year proved largely ineffective.

Israel’s campaign, if aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and toppling the regime, “will require a lot more,” said Rasmus Christian Elling, an associate professor at the University of Copenhagen. As Khamenei fights to salvage the Islamic Republic’s waning power, the strikes have laid bare the challenges of maintaining a regional powerhouse in the face of Israel’s unrelenting offensive.