Northern Border heats up
Hezbollah Forges Ahead, Despite Impending War with Israel
Lebanon received an indirect message stating that if Hezbollah relinquishes its precision missiles and UAVs, this could help prevent war. However, Hezbollah rejected the proposal and refuses to involve the Lebanese state in addressing the issue, increasing the likelihood of near-term escalation.
Hezbollah has firmly rejected international and domestic calls to dismantle its advanced drone fleet and precision missile arsenal, framing such demands as serving Israeli interests rather than Lebanon's security. The group's deputy leader, Naim Qassem, stated that disarmament efforts are part of an "Israeli-American plan," accusing Israel of failing to adhere to a ceasefire agreement from the previous year.
Qassem emphasized that Hezbollah will not surrender its weapons, including missiles and drones, under pressure, arguing that these capabilities are essential for Lebanon's defense.
This position comes amid mounting pressure from the United States and Israel for Lebanon to enforce disarmament under a truce deal. Israeli officials have warned of potential military action if Hezbollah does not comply, with Defense Minister Israel Katz stating that Israel would "act as necessary" if Beirut fails to curb the group's arsenal.
Lebanon's government has tasked its army with confiscating Hezbollah's military infrastructure south of the Litani River by 2026, but the group has refused to scale back its capabilities unilaterally.
The Lebanese newspaper “Nidaa Al-Watan” (anti-Hezbollah) reports, citing its sources, that Lebanon received a reassuring message from Western capitals and American circles stating that if Israel decides to continue the war against Hezbollah, it will avoid targeting state institutions, provided that these institutions do not intervene in favor of Hezbollah.
Lebanese civilians will also allegedly be granted safe corridors to leave areas under Hezbollah control, with freedom of movement to safer regions.
Regarding the nature of the expected Israeli attack, the newspaper wrote that the escalation would be qualitatively more significant than current events, and would include airstrikes and limited troop insertions aimed at weapons depots and sites not previously hit by airstrikes, without a large-scale ground invasion or widespread destruction, as seen in southern Lebanese villages or in Gaza.
The newspaper added that Israel’s primary objective is to destroy Hezbollah’s weapons factories, particularly UAV production facilities and precision missile infrastructure, followed by strikes on Hezbollah’s broader military infrastructure.
Hezbollah has tied any discussions on its arsenal to a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and an end to attacks, rejecting calls for disarmament as submission to external dictates.