Lebanon Threatens Hamas: Disarm or Face Consequences Inside Refugee Camps

For decades, various Palestinian armed groups have maintained a military presence in Lebanon, focused on the refugee camps spread throughout the country. The presence of Palestinian organizations is anchored in the Cairo Agreement signed between the Lebanese government and the PLO in 1969. Thus, over time, the refugee camps became semi-independent territories outside the control of the Lebanese security authorities, who generally refrain from entering their territory.

The issue of "Palestinian weapons" in Lebanon has been a very sensitive issue in the country for years. This is a central part of the lessons of the civil war in the 1980s, and the heavy price paid by Lebanon as a result of turning the country's territory into a base of action against Israel, without taking into account Lebanon's own national and security interests.

However, in light of the political complexity vis-à-vis Hezbollah and the public's sensitivity to the Palestinian struggle, the authorities have for years refrained from dealing with the issue of Palestinian refugees in general, and with the armed factions in particular.

In recent years, Hamas' branch in Lebanon has been the strongest armed military force among the Palestinian factions in the country. The branch, which is estimated to number about 1,500 trained fighters, has a presence in the refugee camps in southern Lebanon and the Beirut area, and works in cooperation with Hezbollah and the Palestine branch of the IRGC's Qods Force, headed by Mohammad Saeed Izadi.

Hamas' branch in Lebanon took an active part in attacks against Israel, including during Operation Guardian of the Walls in May 2021 and alongside Hezbollah in the fighting during the Iron Swords war, mainly by firing rockets at Israeli communities.

According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, the success of state institutions vis-à-vis the Palestinian factions could set a precedent for a similar move vis-à-vis Hezbollah, which is considered a more complex challenge with deeper implications for Lebanon. For this reason, it is possible that Hezbollah will try to thwart a forceful move by the Lebanese army against the Palestinian factions, but it may help settle the issue through dialogue.