Revealed: What really happened in the hours before the October 7 Massacre?

The investigation into the night between October 6 and 7 exposes an utter collapse: all systems—the General Staff, Military Intelligence (Aman), Southern Command, and Shin Bet—misinterpreted the signs in a way entirely detached from reality.

It all begins with a flawed mindset: until October 6, Aman is certain there’s no threat from Gaza. Meanwhile, Hamas executes a deception maneuver, pulling its operatives back from the border and signaling a desire for calm. The IDF? It heads into Simchat Torah in a state of complacency.

Here’s the timeline of that fateful night—illustrating the military and intelligence failure:

21:00 – The Shin Bet issues a warning: SIM cards have been activated in the Strip. The IDF claims to this day it doesn’t know how many SIMs were triggered because the Shin Bet didn’t share enough details. The system is alerted, and commanders demand answers: Where are the terror groups’ senior leaders, and are they in emergency mode? Is the naval unit on high alert? Is the anti-tank system deployed unusually? Is the air unit positioned offensively? Are there launch squads visible in the rocket array (steep trajectory)? Despite this, the conclusion remains that the “signs are reassuring.”

23:30 – Commanders confer with the Shin Bet: Unusual movement of several Hamas commanders is detected. They dig deeper, concluding: It’s not unusual, it’s completely routine.

00:00 – New intelligence: Mohammed Deif, a Hamas senior leader, deviates from his routine. Theories arise in discussions: Maybe Hamas fears an Israeli strike, perhaps they’re preparing a drill, or planning a localized attack at the border. Nothing points to an imminent threat.

02:00 – Southern Command and the division continue probing anomalies with the Shin Bet: Nothing significant emerges, and the picture stays calm.

02:30 – Intelligence report to Southern Command: The rocket array is operating unusually in one of Hamas’s brigades. The Southern Command chief opts to advance a situation assessment to 03:00 and requests more data. At the same time, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi is woken.

03:00 – Operations Division contacts the Air Force, requesting surveillance aircraft for intelligence gathering. The head of Aman’s Operations Directorate wakes up and orders aircraft aloft—an anomaly: instead of one routine plane, three take off.

03:10 – The commander of Unit 8200 and the research division head are roused: They brief the Aman chief for the first time, who instructs them to report only significant anomalies.

03:15 – Southern Command chief Finkelman holds a situation assessment: Conclusion: Nukhba terrorists are in routine mode, no immediate threat is perceived.

03:30 – The Chief of Staff speaks with the Southern Command chief: The head of Aman’s Operations Directorate joins, while the Aman chief goes back to sleep.

03:50 – The Southern Command intelligence officer determines: There’s unusual movement, but it’s not an immediate event. All intelligence entities, including the Shin Bet, concur. They decide to deploy one helicopter and raise alertness—not full readiness, without moving forces from bases.

04:00 – A decision is made to delay the helicopter until 08:00, with no clear explanation in the investigation.

04:30 – Another call between the Chief of Staff, Southern Command chief, and head of Aman’s Operations Directorate. Halevi instructs them to stay vigilant and hold another assessment in the morning.

05:40 – A comprehensive situation assessment: Nearly all parties are present and agree: The event isn’t imminent.

06:00 – Officials begin preparing materials for an 08:00 assessment with the Chief of Staff.

06:29 – Hamas launches its mass assault.

06:45 – Assaf Hamami, commander of the Gaza Division’s Southern Brigade, on the radio: “Scramble everyone, we’re at war, the mission is to prevent abductions and eliminate the enemy.” He’s killed in the defense effort, and his body is abducted to Gaza.

The investigation concludes: There was no coherent intelligence assessment. This failure paralyzed decision-making, resulting in a national catastrophe.

Channel 14 contributed to this article.